Once inflation expectations make a comeback, would the Federal Reserve still dare to loosen and start cutting rates? No. Risk assets then come under further pressure. BTC can’t get “safe-haven premium” (the war panic hasn’t reached the point where people smash gold to buy Bitcoin), and it can’t get a “liquidity flood dividend” either (rates can’t come down). Think about it—aren’t you blocking both ends?

In the short term, watch whether BTC can hold the 60,000 level. If it can’t, US stock futures (S&P 500, Nasdaq) will fall in sync, and the rebound in the crypto market will be a fleeting one. If it holds, then it’s still only the sword of Damocles hanging overhead—if the oil price drops and the deal goes through, Trump can always come back with a line like “ceasefire ended”; if the oil price takes off and the deal falls apart, inflation expectations get cemented, and risk assets will continue to be beaten down on the ground.

#美股AI概念股普涨