Manulife Hits a Historical High—Will It Be Too Cold Up Here? (A Major Financial Stock Price Trend Series, Part 3)

Manulife (00945) built a bottom at 225 yuan last August, then launched a steady uptrend that lasted for half a year, setting a historical high of 322 yuan on June 17, 2026. However, the stock price has now moved into the late stage of an “ascending wedge,” so it is important to closely watch whether it can “break out with volume” and make a strong breakout above the upper trendline.

▲ Figure 1

From a technical pattern perspective, since the stock price rebounded in April, it has gone higher wave after wave, displaying the typical “bullish” characteristics of an ongoing upward climb, and during the advance it formed an “ascending wedge.” However, as the stock price moves toward the tail end of the wedge, it also means that the resistance created by pushing the price up at high levels is gradually increasing.

It is worth noting that when the stock price was surged up from 260 yuan in May, a strong “breakout gap” appeared. After that, the stock price moved sideways and traded in a range of 295 to 300 yuan, with no full retracement of that gap at all, indicating that this zone has extremely strong buy-side support.

Volume-Price Divergence Limits Chasing Higher

During the breakout gap and the fast rally period from April to May, trading volume was modestly increased. But in recent times, when the stock price once again tested the historical high above 320 yuan, trading volume did not clearly surpass the prior high level. This shows a volume-price divergence phenomenon of “the price makes a new high, but the trading volume does not make a new high,” reflecting that the market’s willingness to chase at high levels is somewhat restrained.

▲ Figure 2

Currently, technical indicators show that the stock’s moving averages have formed a standard bullish alignment (a bull-market setup): from top to bottom, 10-day > 20-day > 50-day > 100-day moving averages. This is a very strong signal of a medium- to long-term uptrend. At the same time, since the stock price is currently holding above all moving averages, it reflects that the short-term bullish momentum is still very strong.

Investment Strategy

Manulife is at a crossroads of “extremely strong medium- to long-term trend, while the short term is facing a turning point.” Given that the stock price is nearing the tip of the ascending wedge and there is “volume-price divergence,” near-term upside momentum from a spike may weaken. The following strategies are recommended:

For holders: In the short term, adopt a “strategic defensive” approach. Reduce positions and take profits in batches at higher levels, while closely watching the 10-day line or the 295 yuan defense level.

For those with no position: With the risk-reward profile being unfavorable for chasing at the current high level, it is not advisable to blindly chase higher. It is recommended to wait for two high-probability entry moments:

1. Right-side breakout with volume: Wait for the stock price to strongly break out with large trading volume and then hold above the wedge’s upper trendline, confirming that concerns from the divergence are resolved and that a new primary advance is beginning, and then follow through by chasing accordingly.

2. Buy the dip from the left side: If the wedge adjusts downward, wait for it to pull back to the 295 to 300 yuan strong support zone (near the 20-day and 50-day lines) and only after it shows a stabilization rebound and stops falling, then buy on dips.

(Series on the Trend of Major Financial Stocks — Part 3)

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