Analyst: With neither the US nor Iran backing down, the Strait of Hormuz may become a “long-term powder keg”

BlockBeats, July 12—Ian Ralby, senior research fellow at the Maritime Strategy Center and president of Auxilium Worldwide, warned that the war between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz cannot be resolved through military means, adding that ongoing fighting would only raise global fuel and food costs. One side has the willingness to keep fighting, while the other has the willingness to continue trying to undermine and weaken the other’s capabilities. That itself is the formula for a prolonged conflict. Unfortunately, this may mean that the Strait of Hormuz will remain a long-term problem as a navigable waterway.

The parties affected by the conflict may push for the U.S. and Iran to restart diplomatic efforts, but changing this dynamic will be difficult because both sides are fickle, and both have deeply rooted interests tied to success and victory. Unfortunately, the U.S. has a very flexible concept of what “victory” looks like; while in Iran’s case, they now have a very clear desire for some form of retaliation for everything that has happened—an idea that leads to long-term violent conflict. (Jin Ten)