Coming from last time: the US and Iran have clashed again, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed again, but the market has “desensitized.”

Just as Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the early hours of this morning, when I watched the order book, prices didn’t panic-surge. Instead, the prices stayed stable—this is an extreme “desensitization” characteristic of the market.
Why? Let’s dig into it:

Fundamentals:
Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was first announced at the start of the US-Iran war, over these 100-plus days, the situation was most severe at the beginning. Because oil shipments were involved, and the oil production facilities had no buffer period to allow for give-and-take, crude oil jumped straight from 65 to around 120. But as time went on, both buyers and sellers of crude didn’t want to be locked down by a single choke point. So they started looking for all kinds of alternative routes—for example, Saudi Arabia’s expansion of its Red Sea oil pipeline a few days ago, and the dual-lane management proposed by Oman and Iran in recent days. These are actually all factors that ease the single impact caused by the Strait’s closure.
This suggests that Iran’s announced closure is really only aimed at routes within its territorial waters. As long as oil can flow through the middle route, crude oil can still be shipped out. This is a highly restrained performance—after all, Iran’s new president is in the early period of consolidating power, so they still need a tough stance domestically. Externally, they also need to leave room to avoid being hit with a comprehensive crackdown by the United States.

Mid-to-long-term view:
The marginal effect of geopolitics is diminishing, and a cooling trend is likely.
At present, the market’s consensus logic is: as long as it doesn’t spill over to threaten the oil production facilities themselves, then a pure channel blockade threat is just a “wolf coming” story. The US and Iran are both walking a tightrope right now—U.S. forces conduct targeted strikes without a full-scale invasion, while Iran keeps tough rhetoric plus precise control over the intensity of its strikes. Considering that