BTC Today’s Plan | July 12 $BTC Accurate Strategy

Entry Timing
First position short: price rebounds to 64,300-64,500, build the short in batches
Add to short: when it spikes to 64,600-64,750, add
Short-term long attempt: pullback to 63,600-63,700 for a light, low-buy
Stop-Loss Settings
Unified stop-loss for shorts: above 65,000
Stop-loss for short-term longs: below 63,300
Layered Take-Profits
Shorts first target: 63,800
Shorts second target: 63,500
Short-term long target: 64,200-64,300
Core Logic: The prior high has been capped and resisted, followed by a pullback; bullish momentum has weakened, leading to choppy weakness and downward consolidation. This rebound has already run into the dense trapped-liquidity pressure zone near the previous high; bullish upward momentum continues to fade. Combined with the Fed’s persistently hawkish comments that keep suppressing rate-cut expectations, the market has officially entered the post-rebound pressure-and-pullback phase, with overall sideways-to-downward movement. The DXY remains strong and choppy, continuing to压制 risk-asset valuations. The Middle East geopolitical tailwind has fully faded; with no incremental catalysts ahead, it’s difficult to break above the previous high, and profit-taking pressure is gradually becoming visible.
From the large-cap capital side, BTC spot ETFs continue a net outflow trend, and top institutions have clearly reduced holdings on rallies. This round of上涨 is mainly driven by short-term leveraged funds; without sustained support from incremental capital, the foundation for the rally is weak. In the derivatives market, funding rates have fallen from their highs; open interest has peaked and started to decline. Bullish enthusiasm cools down, forcing a squeeze-driven move to end, and sell pressure is gradually released.
On the technical side, on the 4-hour timeframe, price has faced resistance and pulled back near 64,700 (the prior high). The Bollinger Bands upper band turns downward; the MACD top divergence pattern confirms that the rebound trend has ended and an adjustment cycle has begun. On the 1-hour timeframe, 64,500 forms a short-term strong resistance zone; repeated attempts to push higher fail. Near-term support sits at the 63,600 previous consolidation platform; once it breaks down effectively, it will open further downside space. Expected trading range today overall is 63,300-64,700. In terms of execution, focus on taking shorts at rebound highs, with low-position short-term longs as a secondary approach; strictly control position sizing and attach stop-losses. $BTC ‌#美伊战争阴云再起