Global storage expansion plus a bottleneck in overseas equipment deliveries: China-made semiconductor equipment enters a “super era”

The AI computing power boom, combined with the global storage capacity expansion cycle, is pushing domestically made semiconductor equipment into a rare and historic window of opportunity.

On July 9, Guojin Securities published a research report noting that global storage chip supply and demand have remained imbalanced. Major players such as Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron have strong expansion intentions, and capital expenditures have surged significantly.

But on the other hand, major overseas equipment companies are trapped in capacity saturation and a shortage of key components. The delivery cycle for storage supporting equipment has been extended to 12 to 24 months, along with price increases. With these two forces converging, domestic semiconductor equipment is opening up a dual incremental space for both substitution within China and expansion overseas.

In terms of market size, according to SEMI data, the global semiconductor equipment market will grow from $116.6 billion in 2024 to $155.6 billion in 2027. Among them, the growth rate of testing equipment is the most prominent, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.1% from 2024 to 2027.

Meanwhile, China’s two major storage leaders, ChangXin Technology and Yangtze Memory, have issued clear expansion plans. In 2026, their combined equipment procurement scale is expected to reach 55 to 63 billion yuan, and the domestic substitution procurement orientation will directly bring substantial orders to local equipment companies.

The research report emphasizes that the logic of domestic substitution is currently accelerating in real terms. Especially for two major tracks: measurement and inspection equipment, and finished product testing equipment. The domestic substitution space in these areas is extremely broad and is viewed as the core investment direction with the strongest growth elasticity currently.

Storage chips see gains in both volume and pricing; global capital expenditure structure upgraded

The Guojin Securities research report states that the AI computing power reshapes demand for storage chips, which is the core driving force behind this expansion cycle.

On the demand side, the DRAM搭载量 per AI server is 8 to 10 times that of traditional servers; NAND flash usage reaches 3 times, leading to explosive growth in demand for high-end storage.

On the supply side, Samsung and SK hynix will divert 80% to 90% of advanced process capacity to HBM, and Micron will shift about 70% of its capacity to HBM and high-end DDR5. Capacity for general-purpose storage is systematically squeezed. The three major manufacturers’ inventory alone is only maintained at about 4 weeks, which is significantly lower than a healthy level of 8 to 12 weeks.

According to TrendForce data, in the second quarter of 2026, DDR5 contract prices are expected to rise 58% to 63% quarter-on-quarter; NAND flash contract prices are expected to rise 70% to 75% quarter-on-quarter. The single-quarter increase reaches a rarely seen level in nearly a decade.

Improved profitability is driving leading manufacturers to accelerate capacity expansion.

Micron’s planned capital expenditure for 2026 rises to $27.0 billion, up 70.3% year-on-year; SK hynix’s capital expenditure in 2025 grows 75.5% year-on-year; Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron’s combined capital expenditure for 2026 is expected to reach $53.5 billion, up 16% from 2025.

In China, ChangXin Technology’s 2024 capital expenditure saw a year-on-year growth rate as high as 63.2%, reaching 71.23 billion yuan, with ample room for long-term capacity expansion. With the two listed companies about to raise funds, the raised capital will also be directed directly to storage capacity expansion.

Overseas equipment deliveries under pressure; domestic manufacturers find an overseas expansion window

Overseas equipment leaders are facing a supply bottleneck even during a period of demand surge.

The research report says that due to dual constraints of shortages of core components and capacity saturation, major mainstream manufacturers such as Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron are seeing delivery cycles for front-end and storage supporting equipment commonly stretched to 12 to 24 months, accompanied by upward pricing pressure.

Meanwhile, global semiconductor component lead times are also lengthening. The lead time for automotive-grade 32-bit MCU exceeds 52 weeks; the lead times for SiC and analog integrated circuits are as high as 25 to 40 weeks and 20 to 48 weeks, respectively. A clear mismatch between supply and demand is emerging.

This situation compels Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, and other overseas storage leaders to actively seek diversified equipment suppliers.

Domestically produced etching, thin-film, cleaning, and testing equipment stand out due to factors such as mature process technology, efficient delivery, and overall cost advantages. As a result, overseas verification and order execution have accelerated significantly. Overseas markets such as South Korea and Southeast Asia are gradually becoming a second growth curve for domestic equipment companies.

From order data, the domestic substitution logic has already been fully validated.

From 2020 to 2025, the contract liabilities of Wason Technology rose from $590 million to $3.04 billion. ASMPT? (拓荆科技) (Wuhan Tuojing?) (Wait) — Jiangsu? Actually text: 拓荆科技 contract liabilities increased from 130 million yuan to 4.85 billion yuan. Many companies’ contract liabilities in Q1 2026 still remain at a high level, with abundant orders in hand.

In 2025, the total R&D spending of China’s semiconductor equipment companies was 18.58 billion yuan, more than 5 times higher than in 2020. Accelerating technology breakthroughs provides continuous support for the substitution process.

FT testing and metrology/inspection: the two core tracks with the biggest domestic substitution elasticity

Among all semiconductor equipment sub-sectors, the domestic substitution space for FT (Final Test) finished product testing equipment and front-end metrology and inspection equipment is considered the broadest, and also the two links where the substitution progress is currently the most lagging.

Metrology and inspection is the full name. It is mainly used in front-end (processing) and mid-end (advanced packaging) process steps in wafer manufacturing. Its core task is to monitor the quality of each processing step while the chips have not yet been cut off from the wafer.

Metrology and inspection equipment runs through the entire wafer manufacturing quality control process. It accounts for about 13% of the global semiconductor equipment market value.

This track’s current localization rate is only 1% to 10%, only slightly higher than lithography equipment’s 0% to 1%. It is the most prominent track with a shortfall in independent localization among front-end equipment. The core reason is that high-precision software and hardware have long been monopolized overseas, and wafer fabs have long verification cycles.

According to QYResearch data, in 2025 the global metrology and inspection market size is about $19.22 billion, and it is expected to break $32.1 billion by 2030. From 2026 to 2030, the compound annual growth rate is 10.8%, driven by upgrades to advanced processes, the wider adoption of EUV lithography, and an increase in the number of 3D NAND layers.

For FT (Final Test) finished product testing equipment, two major international giants, Advantest and Teradyne, together had a combined market share of 99% in 2023, making the monopoly landscape especially prominent.

With explosive demand for AI chips and high-bandwidth storage such as HBM, requirements for the number of testing channels and testing speed rise dramatically. The per-unit value of FT equipment increases significantly. Pricing for international high-end FT testers has already exceeded 11 million yuan per unit.

According to QYResearch data, in 2025 the global FT test machine market size reached $3.84 billion, and it is expected to rise to $5.47 billion by 2030. From 2026 to 2030, the compound annual growth rate is 7.5%.

Driven by Moore’s law-related stacking (韬定律) and the popularization of Chiplet advanced packaging, the complexity and value of back-end equipment rise in parallel. The long-term growth logic of the FT track is clear.

The biggest risk remains capital expenditure and verification cadence

However, the research report emphasizes that the semiconductor industry chain still needs to guard against global wafer fabs’ capital expenditure coming in below expectations.

AI computing power, HBM, and advanced processes are important incremental drivers of equipment demand. If end demand weakens, storage original equipment manufacturers, logic foundries, and OSAT/packaging and testing companies will postpone capacity expansion, and equipment orders will be affected first.

In addition, it is also necessary to note that R&D and verification progress for high-end equipment may fall short of expectations. Equipment such as metrology and inspection and high-speed storage testing has high technical barriers. Even if a product completes R&D, it still needs long-term verification by wafer fabs, and revenue recognition cadence may be markedly slower than the market expects.

The third risk comes from geo-trade and supply chain factors. The stability of supply for core components, precision components, and special materials affects not only domestic equipment R&D and delivery, but also its expansion in overseas markets.

If overseas equipment suppliers compete by cutting prices to capture market share, they may also squeeze the profit margins of local companies.

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