Analyzing BTC Short-Term Trends Using Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action

$BTC ‌ #btc I. Dow Theory
Main trend (1-hour timeframe): Since the historical high on May 6 of 82,814, the major downtrend saw an important reversal on July 1. The price dropped sharply from 82,814 through the secondary high on June 1 of 73,974, falling all the way to the July 1 low of 57,721, for a cumulative decline of 25,093. After bottoming out on July 1, the bulls launched a strong counterattack: on July 10 the rebound reached 64,660 (the highest since July), but on July 11 price fell back to 63,857, breaking below the 64,000 psychological level. The main trend still remains downward, and the resistance above 64,660 is extremely strong. After narrow consolidation throughout July 11 in the 64,000–64,400 range, the late session saw a sharp drop, suggesting bulls are meeting very strong resistance above 64,000.
Short-term trend (15-minute timeframe): The short-term uptrend that began from the July 1 low of 57,721 was disrupted after the July 10 high of 64,660. The short-term high shifted down from 64,660 (7-10 13:45) to 64,453 (7-11 14:00) → 64,427 (7-11 15:00) → 64,386 (7-11 21:00). Short-term lows rose from 61,470 (7-8 15:15) to 62,404 (7-9 12:45) → 63,964 (7-11 15:00) → 63,774 (7-11 23:00). On July 11, a pattern emerged of "significantly lower highs + slightly lower lows," shifting the short-term trend from "rebound acceleration" to "pullback consolidation."
Dow conclusion: The main trend remains a deep decline, and resistance above 64,660 is extremely strong. The short-term trend has entered a pullback consolidation phase. 63,500 is the short-term life-or-death line: if it breaks, it opens downside room of 62,500–61,500; if it can hold above 64,000 and break 64,400, the short-term downtrend may temporarily ease, with rebound targets at 64,660–65,500.
II. Chan Theory (Chan Theory)
Fractal structure: On the 15-minute timeframe, the chart marks multiple valid top fractals and bottom fractals.
Top fractals: Appearing at 64,660 (July 10 13:45), 64,453 (July 11 14:00), 64,427 (July 11 15:00), 64,386 (July 11 21:00), etc. The top fractals show a clear descending pattern, moving from 64,660 down into the 64,300 range, indicating that bearish power above 64,000 is strengthening.
Bottom fractals: Appearing at 62,404 (July 9 12:45), 63,100 (July 10 04:45), 63,964 (July 11 15:00), 63,774 (July 11 23:00), etc. The bottom fractals show an upward shift, moving from 63,100 up into the 63,700 range, indicating bullish continuation interest remains, but the strength is weakening.
Bi (strokes) and segments: From the top fractal at 64,660 to the bottom fractal at 63,100 (July 10 04:45), a downward stroke forms, with a drop of about 1,560 and medium force. Then from the bottom fractal at 63,100 to the top fractal at 64,453 (July 11 14:00), an upward stroke forms, with a rise of about 1,353 and medium force. After that, from the top fractal at 64,453 to the bottom fractal at 63,774 (July 11 23:00), a downward stroke forms, with a drop of about 679 and relatively weak force. Each stroke’s amplitude is less than 1,600, showing that bulls and bears have reached a temporary balance. However, the top fractal has shifted down from 64,660 to 64,386, indicating bearish strength is increasing.
Central range: In the 63,500–64,500 area, the July 9–11 candlesticks are densely interwoven, forming a consolidation central area in the sense of Chan theory, with price running slightly along the lower side within that center. Current price 63,857 is located inside the central area slightly below the middle line, belonging to the downward probing stage after the construction of the central area.
Chan conclusion: Both the upward stroke strength (+1,353) and the downward stroke strength (-679) are relatively weak, indicating that bulls and bears have reached a temporary balance. Currently it is in the downward probing stage after the central area is constructed. In the short term, watch whether an effective bottom fractal can form around 63,700; if it forms, the upward stroke may restart. If it directly breaks below 63,500, the downward stroke will extend, targeting 62,500–61,500.
III. Elliott Wave
Based on the 1-hour swing structure, the wave pattern of the move since the May 6 high of 82,814 is divided into waves, showing a typical structure of "completion of a five-wave decline at a higher degree + ABC rebound with the C wave blocked":
1st wave (panic sell-off): A collapse from 82,814 into the 78,500 area (May 7), with a move of about -4,300.
2nd wave (rebound): A rebound from 78,500 up to 81,051 (May 10), with a move of about +2,551.
3rd wave (impulsive decline): A crash from 81,051 down to 59,095 (June 5), with a move of about -21,956. This is the most violent main impulsive decline.
4th wave (rebound): A rebound from 59,095 up to 67,247 (June 15), with a move of about +8,152. The 4th-wave rebound strength is moderate.
5th wave (ending the sell-off): A drop from 67,247 down to 57,721 (July 1), with a move of about -9,526. The 5th-wave amplitude is about 0.4 times the total decline of waves 1–3, making it a typical terminating wave.
A wave (rebound): A rebound from 57,721 up to 64,597 (July 6), with a move of about +6,876. The A-wave rebound strength is strong and has already touched the 0.618 retracement level of the 5th-wave decline.
B wave (pullback): A pullback from 64,597 down to 61,470 (July 8 15:15), with a move of about -3,127. The B-wave pullback amplitude is about 45.5% of the A-wave, a typical medium-depth pullback.
C wave (blocked): A rebound from 61,470 up to 64,660 (July 10 13:45), with a move of about +3,190. The C wave has unfolded but is blocked at 64,660, unable to break through the A-wave high of 64,597 by much (only +63). This shows the C wave’s strength is limited. Currently, after falling from 64,660 to 63,857, the C wave may be forming and completing a terminating minor high.
Wave conclusion: We are currently in the phase where, after the completion of the five-wave decline, the ABC rebound’s C wave is being blocked. The C wave’s strength is limited, and 64,660 may be the C-wave endpoint. If price can hold above 64,000 and rebound to 64,400, the C wave may extend. If price breaks below 63,500, the ABC rebound fails and the five-wave decline may extend.
IV. Volume-Price Analysis
Overall volume-price characteristics: During the July 1 crash phase, there was a very clear surge in volume—after panic sell orders flooded out quickly, volume then contracted rapidly. In the July 1–10 rebound phase, trading volume increased moderately, showing bulls’ capital entering in an orderly way. On July 11, during the whole day’s narrow consolidation in the 64,000–64,400 range, volume shrank significantly, indicating both bulls and bears are waiting and the market is waiting for direction selection. In the late session, a volume-expansion sell-off occurred: it dropped from 64,300 to 63,857, with volume increasing, suggesting bears are beginning a tentative counterattack.
Key volume-price nodes:

At 01:00 on July 1, a high-volume bearish candle formed (volume in the 850 million level), dropping from 60,000 to 57,721, with a body of about 2,279. It confirms that panic sell pressure clustered and surged, forming a stage bottom.

At 21:00 on July 6, a high-volume bullish candle formed (volume in the 450 million level), rising from 63,000 up to 64,597, with a body of about 1,597. It confirms that the A wave topped out.

At 13:45 on July 10, a high-volume bullish candle formed (volume in the 210 million level), rising from 64,000 up to 64,660, with a body of about 662. It confirms the C wave being blocked.

At 23:00 on July 11, a high-volume bearish candle formed (volume in the 920 million level), crashing from 64,200 down to 63,857, with a body of about 343. It confirms bears starting a tentative counterattack.
Last 10 fifteen-minute candlesticks: After oscillating, price slid down from 64,200 to 63,857. Volume showed a late-session expansion pattern, with the market waiting for direction in the 63,800–64,200 range.
Volume-price conclusion: After a whole-day contraction-and-consolidation on July 11, the late session saw a volume-expansion sell-off, showing that bullish strength is weakening. Price repeatedly contests around 64,000, but after volume fades and then expands in the late session, the signal is neutral-to-bearish. Key observation points: If the rebound into 64,000–64,200 is accompanied by a volume-expansion breakout, the C wave may extend. If volume increases again when price breaks down below 63,500, the ABC rebound fails.
V. Order Flow
Trade volume distribution (Volume Profile): The recent 5-day volume control point (POC) is at 64,102. This is the most densely traded region between bulls and bears and forms the most important value-area center right now. Current price 63,857 is about 245 below the POC, indicating a slight discount state (Below Value) relative to the value area.
Current positioning analysis: Price 63,857 is below POC 64,102, meaning it is in the Below Value area and only slightly deviated. In order flow theory, price below the POC means sellers dominate in the short term, and the market is in a mild discount state. Current price is moving toward the lower edge of the Value Area at 61,870. 64,000 is near-term resistance, and 63,500 is near-term support.
High volume nodes (HVN):

64,000–64,500: Resistance HVN above (densely traded area on July 10–11, current strong resistance)

63,000–64,000: Core support HVN (densely traded area on July 9–11, current support)

62,000–63,000: Secondary support HVN (densely traded area on July 7–8)

59,000–60,000: Extreme support HVN (densely traded area on July 1)
Delta analysis (bottom sub-chart): Delta estimates show that during the July 1 01:00 sell-off, Delta turned sharply negative (around -6 billion), confirming that aggressive sell orders dominated. During the July 10 13:45 C-wave push higher, Delta turned slightly positive (+1.5 billion), confirming that aggressive buying near 64,000 was limited. During the July 11 23:00 late-session plunge, Delta turned negative again (-2.5 billion), confirming that aggressive sell orders flooded near 64,000. Current Delta MA12 has fallen from the positive region to around the zero axis (-5M), showing buyer strength is weakening and seller strength is starting to take the lead.
Order flow conclusion: Price is below POC 64,102, with sellers dominating in the short term and the market in a mild discount state. 64,000 and 64,400 above are two key HVN resistance levels; if Delta keeps turning positive and breaks out with increased volume at these levels, there is a chance to push up to 64,660. If Delta turns deeply negative again and price breaks below 63,500, the ABC rebound fails.
VI. Price Action
Support and resistance levels:

Strong resistance: 82,814 (stage high), 73,974 (high on June 1), 67,500 (rebound high on June 15), 64,660 (rebound high on July 10)

Key resistance: 65,000 (psychological level), 64,400 (top edge of the July 11 consolidation zone), 64,000 (integer level)

Key support: 63,500 (bottom edge of the July 11 consolidation zone), 63,774 (late-session low on July 11), 63,000 (integer level), 62,404 (July 9 pullback low), 61,470 (July 8 crash low), 60,000 (integer level), 57,721 (July 1 crash low)
Candlestick patterns:

At 01:00 on July 1, a very long lower-wick bearish candle appeared (body about -2,279, lower wick about 1,500). After dropping from 60,000 to 57,721, it rebounded to 59,200, forming a "hammer" bottom pattern.

At 13:45 on July 10, a bullish candle with a long upper wick appeared (body about +662, upper wick about 200). After pushing from 64,000 to 64,660, it fell back to 64,400, forming a "shooting star" bearish pattern, showing concentrated sell pressure above 64,600.

At 23:00 on July 11, a high-volume bearish candle appeared (body about -343). After crashing from 64,200 to 63,857, it shows bears beginning a tentative counterattack.
Trend structure:

Short term: Since July 10’s 64,660, a descending channel is forming. The lower rail support is around 63,500, and the upper rail resistance is around 64,400.

Medium term: The descending trendline since May 6 and the high at 82,814 is still valid; price has not broken above that trendline.
Price action conclusion: In the short term, price is in the pullback consolidation area after the C-wave is blocked. 63,500 is the short-term bullish defense line, and 64,000 is the pivot between bulls and bears: breaking it could mean the C wave extends, targeting 64,400–64,660; failing it could bring a retest in the 63,000–62,500 range.
Comprehensive judgment
Dow theory signals that the main trend is still a deep decline and that resistance above 64,660 is very strong. The short-term trend has entered a pullback consolidation phase, with key levels at 64,000 (upper) and 63,500 (lower). Chan theory shows that both upward-stroke strength (+1,353) and downward-stroke strength (-679) are weak, and price is currently in the downward probing stage after the central area construction. Elliott Wave confirms that the five-wave decline has completed; the ABC rebound’s C wave is blocked around 64,660 with limited strength. The volume-price relationship shows a neutral-to-bearish mix: "volume contraction and consolidation all day + a late-session volume-expansion sell-off." Order flow shows POC at 64,102, price below POC indicates a mild discount state, and Delta MA12 has fallen to around the zero axis. Price action shows the "shooting star" plus "high-volume bearish candle" pattern, and short-term bears are starting to take the upper hand.
Short-term strategy suggestions:

Bullish scenario: If price shows volume-contraction stop-the-bleed + a bottom fractal + Delta turning positive near 63,500–63,800, you could consider going long. Targets: 64,000 → 64,200 → 64,400. Stop-loss: 63,200.

Bearish scenario: If a top fractal appears near 64,000–64,200 along with a volume-expansion sell-off, confirming the C wave failure + an extension of the five-wave decline, you could short. Targets: 63,500 → 62,500. Stop-loss: 64,600.

Current status: 63,857 is in the pullback consolidation area after the C wave was blocked, with short-term bears slightly leading. It’s recommended to wait for a breakout above 64,400 to confirm the C wave extension before chasing longs, or wait for a breakdown below 63,500 to confirm the ABC rebound failure before chasing shorts.