Data interpretation — Opta predicts England at 50.4%, the closest quarterfinal

Opta’s supercomputer conducted a detailed prediction for this match: England’s probability of winning within 90 minutes is 50.4%, Norway 25.1%, and a draw 24.6%. This is the closest game among the quarterfinals.

Major bookmakers have set the market with England giving 0.5 goals. From a “value investing” perspective, Norway’s 25.1% win rate may be underestimated—they’ve just eliminated Brazil, Haaland is in hot form, and the team’s overall cohesion is excellent. The draw at 24.6% is also worth paying attention to.

Interestingly, when Opta assessed, ahead of time, the probabilities of eight teams advancing to the semifinals, Norway’s figure was only 37.7%. But Norway’s players don’t seem to care. As Buehlerutov said: “We know it will be this team that beats England, not Haaland or Ødegaard.” If Norway pull off another upset, they will set the best record in their team history and become the biggest dark horse of this World Cup.

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