7.12 Next week range outlook: Rebound repair won’t change the “bear head” trend; rebounds are opportunities to go short

Entering July, after pushing up to around 647, the second week completed a full downward cycle. In the early hours, the “bear head” momentum completely ran out. After rebounding to 642 on Wednesday, it then kicked off a one-way, slow drift lower, dipping to the 615 low point—fully reaching the downside correction bottom area that had been previously forecast. As suggested earlier, this oversold surge is only a short-term repair within the broader downtrend. At present, neither the fundamentals nor the core conditions on the “pattern side” have undergone any substantive reversal. Don’t be misled by the brief short-term warmth; after this Friday again rebounds to around 670 and then faces pressure with a modest pullback, it is currently consolidating around 643.

From a technical perspective, around 647 the price has repeatedly met resistance and the overhead pressure remains heavy. Even if the “pattern side” occasionally rebounds, the upside expansion space is extremely limited, making it difficult to form a sustained long (bullish) market. When it hits the 627 heavy-pressure zone, the “bear head” lacks follow-through and it’s very easy for the price to turn and fall again. What you see now—this choppy rebound and bounce—is only a temporary reset after the sharp drop and plunge; it cannot change the overall big-picture bearish structure dominated by the shorts.

Based on the long-term, firm bearish mindset, next week’s hands-on execution should focus on two core points. First, if the “pattern side” shows a rebound afterward, treat it all as an opportunity to enter “at elevated levels.” The “bear head” dominant trend firmly occupies the main position, and the rebound high is the best placement point. For the first swing target, first look at 613 for strong support. After the move turns down, follow the trend and look at the 6w level. After a breakdown of the 6w level, it will directly target 550. 613 is the key bottom-line support—once this level is effectively broken, the downside channel will be fully opened, and the trend will continue with a deeper pullback. $BTC #美股AI概念股普涨