#加密市场观察 Today in the crypto world, prices can’t really rise, and they don’t fall deeply—but one data point has set a historical record.

Saturday, July 11, 2026. Bitcoin opened at $63,196, hit a high of $64,580, and closed at $64,156. In 24 hours, it rose 1.39%, and over 7 days it gained 2.51%. If you bought the dip when it hit the July 1 low of $57,000, you’re now up about 12%—but if you entered at the end of May when it was around $77,000, you’re still down 17% on paper.
But the biggest thing in crypto today isn’t whether prices are up or down—it’s that Bitcoin has been consolidating in the $60k to $70k range for a full 307 days, which is the third-longest consolidation range in Bitcoin’s history.
1. 307 days! Bitcoin has been “playing dead” in $60k–$70k to create the third-longest record!
First, let’s talk about this scary data. According to Glassnode statistics, Bitcoin has been hovering between $60k and $70k for 307 straight days, marking the third-longest “$10,000 range” consolidation period in Bitcoin’s history.
What does that mean? It means that after breaking up to $60k in October last year, Bitcoin has been as if under a freezing spell: it can’t break above $70k and can’t break below $60k. Occasionally it pushes to $69,000; occasionally it gets hammered to $57,000. But after all the back-and-forth, it still ends up around $64,000. This kind of “playing dead” market is more torturous than a crash. A crash at least lets you feel the pain—you know it’s bleeding. “Playing dead” is a dull knife cutting flesh: you watch your account down 20%, you want to cut losses but you’re unwilling, you want to add but you’re afraid it will keep dropping, and in the end you can only “play dead” and lie flat with the market.
2. ETF inflows finally turned positive for 7 days—yet 30 days still saw outflows of $4.8 billion
The most contradictory data today comes from ETFs. Over the past 7 days, US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a cumulative net inflow of $34.5 million. It’s not huge, but after months of consecutive net outflows, it’s the first weekly turn to positive. Both BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBIT contributed. But don’t get too excited—over the past 30 days, cumulative net outflows are still as high as $4.82 billion. It ran out over $4 billion in June alone, setting the worst historical record.
So what does that mean? It suggests that some in “smart money” think the $64,000 area offers a bit of value, and have started exploratory dip-buying. But most people are still watching from the sidelines, and even continue to exit. There’s also serious disagreement inside institutions, and the market hasn’t formed a consensus. Plus, Citi (Citibank) recently cut its 12-month target price for Bitcoin from $112k to $82k, and it also lowered its ETF inflow outlook to zero. Put simply: institutions don’t like the market outlook for the coming year.
3. Short-sellers got liquidated for $30.17 million! Past 24 hours liquidation data
Leveraged traders are still not having an easy time today. Over the past 24 hours, the Bitcoin futures market saw $42.87 million liquidated, including $30.17 million wiped out on the short side (70.4%), while longs only had $12.70 million liquidated.
What does this mean? It means that when prices rise even slightly, short-sellers can’t hold and are forced to close positions and buy back Bitcoin, which then pushes the price higher again—creating a “short squeeze” effect. But you need to understand: this kind of rally driven by a short squeeze isn’t new money flowing in with real capital—it’s shorts being forced out. Once most short positions have been squeezed, the market loses its fuel to keep climbing. If there isn’t fresh buying follow-through afterward, prices can easily turn back down.
4. Fear Index is still 22! The market has been in “extreme fear” for 307 days!
There’s a particularly eye-catching data point today—the Fear & Greed Index is only 22, still in the “Extreme Fear” range. Although it has ticked up a bit from the single digits of the past few days, market sentiment remains extremely fragile. Even more alarming is that over the past 7 days, the index averaged only 22, and over the past 30 days it averaged only 18. That means the market has been in “extreme fear” for a whole month.
What’s weird, though, is that prices didn’t crash. Bitcoin is holding steady around $64,000 and has even seen a modest rebound. This divergence—“stable price, broken sentiment”—has historically often been a bottoming signal, because everything that needed to sell has already sold; the remaining holders refuse to sell no matter what; selling pressure runs out, and the price can’t drop further. But a bottom doesn’t necessarily mean an immediate rally. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said institutional investors haven’t fully capitulated yet; ETF outflows, while present, still aren’t as bad as “panic selling” compared with inflows in prior cycles.
5. The SEC wants crypto classified as a priority! Major rules may come in July
There’s also a policy-level update in crypto today. The SEC’s 2026 regulatory agenda update lists crypto assets as a priority, including crypto asset issuance, broker custody, crypto market structure, and more. Related rules are expected to be proposed in July.
So what does that mean? It means the SEC may bypass Congress and set rules for crypto directly through administrative regulations. If the rules are relatively friendly (for example, making it easier for start-ups to raise financing), crypto could catch a breather; if the rules are strict (for example, restricting custody or raising compliance thresholds), crypto could get hit worse. Also, the CLARITY Act (which clarifies whether digital assets fall under SEC or CFTC jurisdiction) has stalled in the Senate, with its passage probability dropping to 50%.
Regulatory uncertainty remains the Damocles’ sword hanging over crypto.