The midpoint exchange rate for the Chinese yuan has risen above 6.8, the first time since 2023.

Today, the RMB-to-USD central parity rate was raised by 47 points to 6.7989, marking the first time since 2023 that it has broken through the 6.80 level, and it has strengthened to its highest level since February 10, 2023.

Overnight, amid pressure on the market as the Middle East ceasefire talks faced strain due to renewed mutual attacks between Iran and the US, and as investors weighed geopolitical risks against the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike outlook, the US Dollar Index fell for the second consecutive trading day. During the day, offshore RMB-to-USD recovered the 6.80 level, moving away from its nearly two-week lows.

Market analysis believes that the logic that supports the RMB’s strength in the first half of the year remains in place, but at the same time, suppressing factors are gradually becoming more evident, including the Fed’s shift toward a hawkish stance, a slowdown in export growth, and a marginal weakening in the settlement and remittance momentum. In the second half of the year, the RMB exchange rate will enter a stage of deep contest between bullish and bearish factors.

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