🔥 ETF资金回流，但反弹根基并不稳固

U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs ended a streak of eight consecutive weeks of outflows this week, with a total net inflow of $281.8 million. But don’t get too excited—Bitcoin ETFs only recouped 2.4% of the $8.26 billion cumulative outflows from the previous eight weeks, while Ethereum ETFs recovered about 7%. This looks more like a technical rebound after a deep drop than a trend reversal.
更值得警惕的是，比特币财库公司持仓市值已蒸发逾千亿美元，但持仓量反增至1.14M枚——增持集中在75k至125k美元的高位区间。5月进入低估区间后增持明显放缓，Strategy已率先减持。若更多财库公司因财务压力跟进，将形成额外的抛压。
More worrying is that the market value of holdings by Bitcoin treasury companies has evaporated by more than $75k, yet their holding amount has increased to 1.14 million BTC—adding more is concentrated in the high range of $75k to $125k. After May entered the undervaluation range, accumulation slowed markedly, with Strategy leading the way in trimming. If more treasury companies follow suit due to financial pressure, it will create additional sell pressure.
散户美股购买步伐也降至2020年以来最低，过去一个月净买入仅13B美元。散户持仓总额仍处高位，但净买入被压缩，说明市场情绪谨慎，资金并未真正回流加密。
Retail buying of U.S. stocks has also fallen to its lowest level since 2020; over the past month, net purchases were only $13 billion. Retail holdings remain high, but net inflows have been compressed, indicating cautious market sentiment and that capital has not truly flowed back into crypto.
反弹信号需要更多确认：资金流入能否持续、财库公司是否减持、散户情绪是否回暖。当前的结构性脆弱性意味着，任何宏观风吹草动都可能让这波反弹迅速消退。
Rebound signals need more confirmation: whether inflows can be sustained, whether treasury companies continue trimming, and whether retail sentiment rebounds. The current structural fragility means that any shift in the macro environment could cause this rebound to fade quickly.
$btc #eth #etf #区块链 #加密市场