July 11—Next week’s response approach (Technology vs. Space)

The article is only for personal hands-on practical review. The market changes by the moment, so when you read it, take it rationally, stay independent in your thinking, and never blindly follow the crowd…

I’ve been recently closed in seclusion refining things. I’ll write more on the weekend; during normal days, I may mainly just post my personal execution records. For now, I won’t reply to fans’ questions. Likes are on an as-it-goes basis—no pressure…

Weekend news isn’t that important, so I’ll skip it for now… ​ 1、Technology sector ​ a. Domestic front, next week is still the main theme. Whether it’s Changxin or Huawei, it’s all about competing with overseas players on capacity expansion… Before Changxin gets listed, the village won’t allow the market to shrink volume, and it definitely won’t let tech go cold… The key timing nodes are July 16 (Changxin subscription) and July 17 (Huawei super node)… ​ In terms of operations, personally I mainly focus on the Changxin-related industrial chain + Huawei super node-related. But it’s necessary to distinguish between, after chip capacity expansion, which parts can truly benefit if chips drop in price without being disproven, and address sequencing issues… ​ Actually, the market’s objective feedback already has the answer: downstream packaging and equipment, upstream target materials, oxidation, wafers, lithography… as well as the switches in the server clusters driven by the Tao Ding law… ​ b. Overseas front, personally I think the near-term upside and collective momentum probably won’t be that great. Wait until after the domestic front has been more or less traded up following July 17 before considering… If you really want to look, then just see whether that compute-power Chain “old dragon” dares an additional rebound again… ​ 2、Commercial aerospace ​ On Friday’s second half, batches of dozens of second-board stocks appeared instantly. No need to say, everyone knows it’s done by quant. Objectively, next week will compete with tech for liquidity, forming a teeter-totter lineup… ​ Subjectively, I think it’s not yet the time to trade the aerospace theme. At this moment, trading it in a sequence that doesn’t match the village’s intentions would be wrong. Especially since on Friday aerospace smashed the whole market, it wasn’t endearing, for two reasons: first, you need to wait for Changxin to be successfully listed; second, you need to wait until after the mid-year report pre-announcements are disclosed… ​ On Monday, aerospace might be a “run ahead” situation. It depends on whether everyone is willing to become the quant bag holder. At least among tech, institutions and big funds should be defending tech and not going into aerospace. If they do go, and it’s on their own tech turf, it will get smashed. Personally, I also plan to give up and not do it, because the good front-row entries can’t be bought, and what you can buy is back-row stuff—those are the ones where they’ll smash you as much as you have… ​ If you really have to look, it may only be that liquefied methane fuel has a bit of an expectation gap. The kinds of entries on Friday that weren’t second-board with seconds, and had messy divergence and bad locked board behavior… even if participating, it should be mainly a light position to maintain awareness of market rhythm and timing… ​ On pacing: on Monday, aerospace’s opening auction for the first few minutes could be the intraday highest point; theoretically it’s tilted toward turning from consensus to divergence’s S point… ​ On the other side, tech’s opening auction over the first ten minutes will most likely be the intraday low point for tech divergence; theoretically there’s a B point where divergence turns into consensus… ​ Finally, let’s talk about the 《Kung Fu Women’s Football》 I watched today. After worrying about low expectations beforehand, it turned out slightly above expectations… ​ No Stephen Chow, but full of Stephen Chow. When the BGM kicks in, the classic wraparound, Zhou-style grassroots philosophy—lit me up. Still feels unfinished; people who understand will understand… ​ There’s both national pride and personal love-hate, grassroots inspiration. Whether from a national-and-people perspective or a personal one, the true path to return to the peak isn’t to defeat the opponent—it’s to fix yourself… ​ The game in A-shares is the same. Dare to face your own weak points, repair your weak points; use slow to break fast, stick to your own strategy and rhythm. What your eyes see are illusions. As for so-called ultimate moves—true高手, in the end, should simplify complexity, stay relaxed, and win easily! Salute to Stephen Chow…