2026.7.11 Daily Crypto Market News Analysis

2026.7.11 Daily Crypto Market News Analysis Macro and market main-line conclusions—let’s state them clearly first: What truly changed today’s outlook wasn’t weekend rotation among small coins, but the resurgence of U.S. inflation pressure, with ETF flows continuing to turn into outflows. Yet BTC is still holding near $63k. The price hasn’t immediately broken down, suggesting there is still demand at lower levels; but neither the funding side nor the interest-rate line is coordinating. The current picture looks more like a weak equilibrium, not the starting point of a new broad risk-on cycle. The latest report submitted by the Federal Reserve to Congress says that U.S. inflation further heated up in this spring. Tariffs, energy costs, and investments in AI infrastructure are all pushing up price pressure, and core inflation in May still remains clearly above the 2% target. More importantly, the latest meeting minutes show officials have significant disagreement over the interest-rate path within the year. For the crypto market, this means the trading logic of “quick easing” lacks confirmation for now. Next week’s U.S. CPI, corporate earnings reports, and the situation in the Middle East will together affect U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. Even if crypto prices stabilize over the weekend, you can’t directly interpret resilience under low trading volume as meaning macro risks have been resolved. The latest full disclosures of funding and BTC/ETH-related news show that on July 9, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $95.3 million, and ETH ETFs saw net outflows of about $52.2 million. The day before, BTC ETFs also saw net outflows of about $84.9 million. Two consecutive days of weakening overturn the optimistic interpretation that “a single day of large inflows means institutions are returning to a sustained trend.” My view is that ETF buying hasn’t disappeared, but it’s still oscillating between chasing price action and macro signals without forming stable incremental inflows. BTC has moved back from around $62k to the $63k–$64k range, and ETH is still repairing around $1,700–$1,800. The fact that BTC can withstand ETF outflows suggests spot absorption isn’t bad; but ETH funding has also turned negative, so for now you can’t confirm whether capital will spread from BTC to altcoins. In handling this, don’t focus only on weekend price colors: true effective strength should come from all three happening simultaneously—next week’s ETFs turning back to net inflows, BTC holding $63k, and ETH continuing to outperform BTC. In terms of industry, regulation, and track news—regarding regulation—Reuters disclosed an Indian government document showing that the Indian government again argues that the central bank should ban banks and financial institutions from holding, trading, or gaining exposure to crypto assets. It won’t directly determine global crypto prices, but it reminds the market that regulatory divergence across different jurisdictions is still widening. The UK is reducing some capital requirements for stablecoin issuers, while the U.S. stablecoin banking model continues to advance. India, meanwhile, still tends to keep crypto assets isolated from the mainstream financial system. The impact on trading judgment is that the medium-term logic for stablecoins, payments, and RWA hasn’t vanished, but valuations will increasingly depend on licenses, reserve transparency, and actual settlement volume. You can’t treat the four words “regulatory advancement” as a blanket positive for all related tokens. On the safety front, the number of attack incidents in the first half of the year is still staying at a high level. Cross-chain bridges, oracles, and signed key custody remain the main risk points. A recent case where tokenized stocks were amplified by about 7,700% due to abnormal oracle pricing again shows that moving real-world assets on-chain for RWA doesn’t automatically eliminate on-chain pricing risks. This track is worth following, but for high-yield protocols you should first look at the price source, liquidation mechanism, permissions, and insurance—not the asset size highlighted in promotional materials. Without reliable risk control, growth will instead cap the entire track’s valuation ceiling lower. Market interpretation—For short-term BTC, first check whether it can keep holding $63k. Above that, around $64k requires both trading volume and capital flows to confirm together. If it falls back below $62k, it indicates this week’s rebound is still just interval repair. For ETH, whether it can stabilize around $1,800 and improve ETH/BTC relative strength is a better signal for whether altcoin risk appetite can spread. In a fear environment, there can be local sharp rallies, but until BTC, ETH, and ETF capital flows resonate together, it’s not suitable to treat a single coin’s rally as a full-blown market turn. Tomorrow’s focus—looking back at yesterday, what needs correction is the funding-side judgment: yesterday’s latest visible data briefly gave hope that ETFs might test allocations again, but subsequent full disclosures show that on July 9, BTC and ETH ETFs combined saw net outflows of about $147.5 million. Funding continuity is weaker than what was judged at the time. The macro conclusion of “no confirmed easing” and “altcoins need to wait for confirmation” remains unchanged. Tomorrow, first watch whether weekend BTC can hold $63k in a low trading-volume environment, avoiding a fake breakout followed by a pullback. Second, watch whether before next week’s CPI, Treasury yields, the dollar, and oil prices continue to rise. Third, watch whether in the next trading day, BTC and ETH ETFs can simultaneously restore net inflows. As long as any one of price, funding, and macro is missing, you should still handle it as range repair rather than a trend reversal. Fear and Greed Index and tagged cryptocurrencies—Fear and Greed Index: 26, Fear. Sentiment has rebounded from the edge of extreme fear, but it’s still not enough to prove that risk appetite has truly recovered, and it may even more easily lead to sharp spikes and sharp drops. Specific positions, order prices, take-profit and stop-loss levels, and PDF post-trade recaps—follow the daily 8:00 subscription flash brief and member archive files. For how to view the archive files, please check the pinned instructions. Risk warning: The above content is only a sorting of news flow and market scenario analysis, and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset volatility is extremely high—be mindful of position sizing and stop-losses. 2026 Crypto Market #比特币投资 #以太坊 #Crypto Market Analysis