Bernstein’s July 8 global storage monthly report has continued the script for this bull run: DRAM’s average price in Q2 surged 74% quarter-over-quarter. Server DRAM rose 60-67%, and Mobile DRAM nearly 80%. AI cloud providers locked in long-term orders that drained Server DDR5, and the bull market could potentially last until 2027—but the “steepest” part is already behind us. DRAM’s expected Q3 increase is forecast to cool back to 13-18%.

The real big meat is in HBM. Bernstein expects HBM’s average price to rise another 2-2.5 times year-over-year in 2027. HBM3E/4 will cover all generations, boosting the three major manufacturers’ EPS to peak in unison in the second half of 2027. Among the beneficiaries, Micron MU’s target price was raised from $510 to $1,300. SK hynix SKHY was adjusted from 1.15 million Korean won to 3.3 million Korean won. On the AI side, the demand transmission mechanism NVDA also counts as a partial related party.

The stance is cautiously bullish, looking into the first half of 2027. The risks come in three tiers: first, the upside has already started converging, and the “demand destruction” from cuts in consumer electronics orders will eventually rebound against you; second, long-term contracts rolling out in 2027H2-2028 plus new capacity coming online should bring prices back to normal, with the cycle peak sitting right there; third, HBM long-term contract pricing actually makes near-term gross margins trail ordinary DRAM, and the expectation gap is easy to misstep on. If you can hold the cycle, hold—don’t chase the steepest part. #伯恩斯坦称存储牛市可持续至2027年