On prediction markets, price equals consensus. Currently, the execution price for the “Norway advances” option has been pushed by sentiment to a level that deviates from its actual probability—this is a typical “fan premium.” As an arbitrage observer, I’ve noticed that large funds (“smart money”) have been steadily, slowly buying “England advances” options over the past 24 hours, while pairing that with hedging orders on “England -0.5.”

The underlying logic for England advances isn’t just strength, but also schedule advantage—potential semifinal opponents take a greater toll. Norway’s underdog story is certainly exciting, but the harsh reality of knockout depth is this: once the match enters the final 30 minutes, the combined market value of the players England can bring on exceeds the total market value of Norway’s starting XI. On efficient markets like Gate Polymarket, prices will ultimately revert to rationality. I’m tracking institutional fund flows and focusing on England advances, while placing small bets on “England 1-0” as a bonus. The noisier the market, the more calmly you need to take the counter-bet. #预测世界杯挪威VS英格兰