Analyst: Bitcoin is likely entering the late stage of a bear market; it is expected to rise to $250k in the next two to three years.

BlockBeats message, July 11, Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts said that Bitcoin may be entering the later stage of this bear market; although the bear market hasn’t ended yet, downward momentum has begun to weaken. The current BTC price has fallen by about 50% from the $126,100 all-time high set in October 2025.

Coutts called the current move a “typical bear market” and noted that Bitcoin’s volatility is down about 50% compared with the previous cycle, which suggests this downturn may not be as severe as in earlier bear markets. However, he reminded that all trend indicators are still clearly bearish, and the market will not mechanically repeat past cycles.

He said that momentum indicators over longer timeframes are beginning to show bullish divergence, indicating that negative momentum is slowing down, but this does not mean Bitcoin has technically exited the bear market. In addition to global liquidity tightening, deteriorating on-chain demand was also an important reason for Bitcoin’s earlier selloff.

For long-term price forecasts, Coutts is cautious about Bitcoin reaching $1 million in 2030. He would rather predict that BTC will rise to $200,000 to $250,000 over the next two to three years. He also warned that the Bitcoin community needs to respond more clearly to the potential threat of quantum computing before 2027, because major protocol upgrades may take about five years.