The recent US stock AI rally has been even more aggressive than expected. OpenAI and Google have rolled out new products one after another, and the compute-power supply chain is also surging—NVDA rose nearly 3% overnight, and its gains for the year are already heading toward 180%; MSFT, driven by Azure AI growth, is firmly in the $3 trillion club, and “shovel-seller” like SMCI (Super Micro Computer) also keeps setting new highs. In the crypto space too, RNDR (render token), riding the “decentralized AI compute” narrative, jumped 20%+ over the past week.

On the surface, it looks like fundamentals are driving it: cloud providers raised Capex, and AI applications are beginning to generate revenue. But when you break it down, NVDA’s forward P/E is already 60x+, SMCI’s valuation is also in the 90th percentile historically, and “consensus being too consistent” is itself a risk. If the Fed’s interest-rate cut pace falls short of expectations, or if next quarter’s cloud-provider guidance turns soft, a pullback of 15%-20% from these high levels is not a low-probability outcome.

📉 Personally, I’m cautious in the short term but structurally bullish in the long term—the AI capital expenditure cycle isn’t over yet. But chasing this leg higher has generally poor value for money; waiting for a decent pullback before jumping in feels much more comfortable. #美股AI概念股普涨