Opta supercomputer tells you——England has a 50.4% win rate, but this could be the closest game among the quarterfinals

Brothers, first look at the numbers. Opta’s supercomputer ran 25,000 simulations, and the result is—England beats Norway in 50.4% of matches, Norway 25.1%, and draws 24.6%. 50.4% vs 25.1%—this is the smallest gap among the quarterfinals. France vs Morocco is 73.9%, Spain vs Belgium is 69.8%, Argentina vs Switzerland is 69.4%. Only this England match is a true fifty-fifty.

The probability of England advancing to the semifinals is 62.3%. 62.3% vs 37.7%—England is indeed the favorite, but Norway’s upset probability is far higher than you might think.

England is one of the most experienced teams in this World Cup. Only Brazil and Germany (14 times each) have played more World Cup quarterfinals than England (11 times). But England’s advancement rate in the quarterfinals is only 30%—out of 10 quarterfinal appearances, they advanced 3 times. Norway has never played in a quarterfinal match—this is the first in their team history.

England is the more heavily favored side, but Norway just eliminated Brazil 2-1. They’re not afraid of big teams, not afraid of big stages, not afraid of being the underdog. In this match, whoever wins won’t be considered a surprise.

#预测世界杯挪威VS英格兰