# Trump Says the Ceasefire Is Over Yet Agrees to Continue Negotiations

As for the next developments in the US-Iran conflict, what’s my trading plan?
There won’t be a fight, and the situation won’t escalate, but the posturing and small frictions will continue, and oil prices will keep trading within a range!
In the short term, you need to watch what happens over the weekend. Trump again issued, verbally, a “final warning”: by Saturday, he demanded a commitment that the Strait of Hormuz would be kept open, otherwise military action would be taken, and he threatened with 1,000 missiles on standby.
But it also won’t escalate to something too serious. If things are eased under third-party mediation, the price could fall below the 70 level; however, the dip over a short period is a good opportunity for tactical trading because at a lower starting point, the potential profit space for an upside risk escalation is also larger.
One reason is for the midterm elections, and the other is that it’s just after taking office and it’s in a power-showing phase—neither side is willing to back down.
Overall, my current trading plan for crude oil is not to chase shorts or go short. Instead, I’ll look for suitable long opportunities. In the short term, around 69.5 is a good focal point.