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About the next developments in the US-Iran conflict, what’s my trading plan?
If it doesn’t break out and can’t escalate, then the bravado and small frictions will continue, and oil prices will trade in a range!
Now in the short term, you need to watch the weekend developments. Trump again verbally issued a “final ultimatum” to promise the Strait of Hormuz would remain open by Saturday, otherwise military action would be taken, and he threatened 1,000 missiles on standby.
But it also won’t escalate into something very serious. If tensions are eased under third-party mediation, prices could fall below the 70 level; however, a quick dip is a good opportunity for a trade, because at the current stage, the lower the price, the greater the upside profit space from the risk of escalation when trading upward.
One is for the midterm elections, and the other is that the party that just took office is in a power-showing period. Neither side is willing to back down.
In summary, my crude oil trading plan now is not about chasing a short; instead, I’ll look for suitable long opportunities. In the short term, around 69.5 is a good point to watch.
$CL