[US Stock Market Update] New US job openings fall, rate-hike expectations ease. The Dow rose as much as 500 points to break its high. Chip stocks fall again, Sandisk slides 1% (ongoing update)

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June non-farm payrolls fell back to 57k, below the market expectation of 115k. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped by 0.1 percentage point to 4.2%, reflecting that employed people are inclined to stay in their current jobs, resulting in fewer hiring activities.

The U.S. Dollar Index and U.S. longer-dated bond yields both pulled back after the data release. The U.S. dollar fell 0.7%, losing the 101 level, while U.S. long-term bond yields retreated to 4.46%. CME Fedwatch data shows that the market’s probability of the Fed raising rates more than once this year has fallen to less than 35%, the probability of one rate hike is about 43%, and the probability of no rate hike is 22%.

At the open, the three major U.S. stock indexes moved in different directions. The Dow gained as much as 500 points, topping 52,805 points; the S&P 500 rose 10 points to 7,493 points; and the Nasdaq fell 92 points, or 0.4%, to 25,948 points. NYMEX crude oil fell 1.4% to $67.60, and Brent futures fell 1.4% to $70.60. NYMEX gold rose 1.5% to $4,142, while spot gold rose 2.4% to $4,129.

In focus stocks, Micron (MU), which plunged more than 10% on Wednesday, fell as much as 5% at the start of trading on Thursday. Sandisk (SNDK) fell by more than 10% at most.

A Korean media report last night said that in SK hynix’s newly signed long-term supply agreement (LTA), the price cap (Price Cap) was removed. Once spot prices surge sharply due to a spike in AI demand, the contract price can fully reflect the increase, maximizing benefits—changing the previous logic of using a price cap to attract long-term orders.

In addition, the report said the contract term has also been significantly extended from the traditional 1 year to 3 to 5 years, improving industry visibility and creating room for a valuation re-rating of the sector.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are being updated continuously—see: Next page

Intraday moves:

【18:30】Before the June unemployment rate and non-farm data were released: Dow futures down 30 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.5%; chip memory stocks not yet bottoming out

【15:18】Dow futures fell 112 points to 52,556 points; S&P 500 futures fell 17 points to 7,525 points; Nasdaq futures fell 199 points, or 0.7%, to 29,895 points.

【15:18】NYMEX crude oil fell 1.5% to $67.53, and Brent futures fell 1.5% to $70.53. NYMEX gold fell 0.02% to $4,081, while spot gold rose nearly 1% to $4,068.

【15:00】【Asia-Pacific stocks】South Korea’s KOSPI index down nearly 9%, SK hynix down more than 14%: 7,709 and 7,747 slid nearly 30%; dragged by Meta planning to sell compute capacity + Apple planning to procure Yangtze Memory storage + Yangtze Memory chips

【14:53】【Taylor Swift】Taylor Swift rumored to hold a once-in-a-century wedding at Madison Square Garden this Friday; the venue becomes a fairy-tale castle with more than a thousand guests witnessing

【12:51】【AI+OpenAI】OpenAI reportedly discussed selling 5% of its shares with the Trump administration

【12:42】【Japanese yen moves】The Japanese government plans to shift to surprise FX intervention, giving up advance notice, to deal with Japan yen speculative net short positions

【12:23】【Gold price moves】State Street: The gold bull market cycle still has room to rise; in the next 6 to 9 months, gold prices may see $5,500

【12:06】【Insider trading】Report: The U.S. SEC has stepped in for an investigation; market makers controlled more than 100 “unnamed individuals” for precise short-selling of Futu Tiger; the court approved investigating the identity of those involved

【11:48】【Japanese yen moves】Yen at 4.82 per Hong Kong dollar. Analysis: Two major reasons driving it—the path toward 200 in the yen looks increasingly like the trend

【11:31】【AAPL】Apple reportedly preparing an upgraded next-year iPad Pro: internal configuration upgrades and adoption of a stronger new chip

【10:56】【SPCX】Futuure Assets denies a “communication mistake” in the SpaceX IPO, saying the lead underwriter has confirmed the orders

【10:52】【AI+Financing】SoftBank reportedly restarted 78 billion yuan in fundraising, using OpenAI equity as collateral; the syndicate includes Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan

【08:32】【U.S. interest rates】Fed Chair Waller: Recent inflation risks have been somewhat eased; reiterates determination to bring inflation back to the 2% target

【08:06】【9988】Alibaba and the payments company will pay more than 4.6 billion yuan to settle an investigation into illegal U.S. drug sales

【02:58】【ChatGPT】Man with bipolar disorder sues OpenAI, saying AI plays the role of a god, fueling delusions that led to self-harm

【00:18】【MU】Micron and General Motors sign a long-term chip supply agreement

====Below are the July 1 U.S. stock market updates====

Wednesday: Will the U.S. stand by its commitments on the Iran nuclear talks? After the Dow hit a top, it reversed lower; Micron plunges over 1成; Nasdaq down 0.7%

Iranian negotiators’ delegation said the U.S. broke its promise on the understanding, and that a supervisory panel will review alleged U.S. violations. In addition, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said at an ECB meeting that the Fed will open up a new route, but refused to provide guidance on interest rates. Market investment sentiment remained cautious, U.S. stocks saw large swings: after the Dow rose 423 points, it reversed lower; AI hardware stocks tumbled, dragging down the Nasdaq. Reflecting the performance of China concept stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rebounded sharply 2.9% against the trend.

See U.S. stocks at close:

The Dow closed at 52,305 points, down 13 points; the S&P 500 gave back 0.22%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.66%. Meta (META), which has been grabbing chips in recent years, reportedly planned to sell its remaining compute capacity, casting a shadow over AI hardware stock orders; Meta closed up 8.8%.

With chip stocks under pressure and fears that “crazy buyers” are cutting orders, Micron (MU) fell more than 1成. When Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra was interviewed, he said the current imbalance between supply and demand for chip products is not only caused by memory chip manufacturers. He believes that in recent years some customers have pushed hard to drive down prices during negotiations, leading to insufficient industry capacity investment—meaning the whole industry could not lay groundwork in advance and failed to keep up with the demand unleashed by the AI boom.

The Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX, a space exploration technology company, has developed a smartphone-like artificial intelligence (AI) prototype. SpaceX shares continued to fall with the broader market, down 7.8%.

Kazem Gharibabadi, deputy minister of foreign affairs of Iran and head of Iran’s technical negotiation delegation, said that on Wednesday during a three-party meeting between Iran, Qatar, and Pakistan held in Doha, the Iranian delegation proposed and reviewed the U.S. violation of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding regarding the commitment to end hostilities in Lebanon.

He also clarified that there was no meeting in Doha between the Iranian and U.S. delegations. Earlier market news indicated that the U.S. and Iran were conducting indirect technical talks in Doha, Qatar, with Qatar and Pakistan serving as mediators, and that the two sides would not meet directly.

International oil prices continued to slide. NYMEX crude oil fell 1.32% to settle at $68.58; Brent futures fell 1.89% to close at $71.57. Gold prices fluctuated but held steady.

Fed Chair Waller spoke at the ECB forum, during which he mentioned that the Fed will open a new policy roadmap to determine a better policy, but stressed that it will not provide any forward-looking guidance. He expected that at the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), there will be intense internal policy disagreements. He reiterated the Fed’s determination to bring inflation back to the 2% target and emphasized that the central bank’s long-standing independence will not change.

U.S. June ADP employment increased by 98k, less than the expected 118k, with the May figure maintained at 122k—often dubbed the “mini non-farm.”

Challenger, Gray & Christmas data showed that the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies in June fell 53% month-on-month to 45,849, and fell 4% year-on-year.

Intraday moves:

【23:00】Meta surges 10%, pivoting into the cloud computing market and selling excess compute capacity; chip stocks plunge; Dow rises 85 points

【21:30】Fed Chair Waller: expects fierce internal disagreements at the July policy meeting; U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields rebound; Dow down 166 points, chip stocks slump

【18:00】U.S.-Iran are holding indirect technical talks; oil and gold prices fall together; Dow futures down 124 points

【17:00】【AI+Anthropic】U.S. Department of Commerce lifts export controls; Anthropic will resume access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 starting tomorrow

【16:40】【AAPL】U.S. Supreme Court accepts Apple’s appeal; hears Epic Games’ anti-trust case “contempt of court” ruling

【16:30】【Trump】Last year, profits from cryptocurrency exceeded 9.3 billion yuan; personal net worth jumped to 59.2 billion

【16:20】【TSLA】Tesla tests its first Cybercab; Tesla recommends exempting the installation of brake pedal

【16:00】【Layoff wave】Microsoft rumored to resume large-scale layoffs involving thousands of positions; the Xbox division becomes the hardest-hit area

See U.S. stocks at close:

AI stocks performed well: SanDisk (SNDK) rose 10.9%, AMD (AMD) rose 7.7%, Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose 7.3%, TSMC (TSM) rose 4.9%, Nebius (NBIS) rose 5.8%, CoreWeave (CRWV) rose 4.2%, but Micron (MU) rose only 0.8%.

The Musk pair climbed: Tesla (TSLA; Tesla) rose 2.1%, SpaceX (SPCX) rose 4.1%, closing at $170.86.

U.S. Treasury prices fell, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.465%, as U.S. data continued to come in strong—especially JOLTS job openings at 7.594 million, above the 7.296 million forecast. At the same time, with inflation expectations, pressure to raise rates increased.

The U.S. and Iran are in dialogue in Doha via intermediaries; the market is watching for developments. Oil prices were soft: NYMEX crude fell 1% to $70.07, and Brent futures fell 0.3% to $72.92. Spot gold changed little at $4,008.38.

A spokesperson for Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the U.S. Middle East envoy Witko?ff and President Trump’s son-in-law Kushner will arrive in Qatar to meet with the mediators and discuss negotiation matters. However, there are currently no plans to arrange a high-level meeting between the U.S. and Iran.

Overall in the first half of the year, the Dow rose 8.9%, the S&P 500 rose 9.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 12.8%, continuing the past three years of consecutive gains.

Bitcoin was under pressure, slipping below $60,000; it was temporarily at $58,482, down 3% on the day. Coinbase (COIN) fell 3.6%, Strategy (MSTR) fell 6.2%, and Circle fell 17.7%.

Metropolitan Investment Management said that artificial intelligence (AI) remains the core engine driving market growth. As agentic AI gradually moves from the infrastructure stage to practical business applications, companies’ capital spending continues to receive support. Meanwhile, the market is also placing more emphasis on distinguishing companies that genuinely benefit from the long-term AI development trend from individual stocks mainly driven by market sentiment.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are being updated continuously—see: Next page

Intraday moves:

【14:59】Dow futures rise 15 points to 52,587 points; S&P 500 futures rise 6 points to 7,506 points; Nasdaq futures rise 71 points, or 0.2%, to 30,124 points.

【14:59】Oil prices fell 1%: NYMEX crude oil down 1.1% to $70; Brent futures down 1.4% to $72.14. Gold steadied: NYMEX gold up 0.1% to $4,043; spot gold up 0.3% to $4,028.

【14:07】【Fed personnel】Overturning the 1991 precedent, U.S. Supreme Court expands the president’s power to fire senior officials—limited protection for Fed independence; Cook to remain in her post for now

【12:39】【U.S. stock analysis】Dow closes above 52,000 points for the first time—analysis: It’s not advisable to sell tech stocks at current levels to buy traditional stocks; AI-related shares are still expected to be in demand

【12:33】【Oil price moves】Morgan Stanley cuts its oil price forecast again—the second time in two weeks—sees Q4 Brent at $80

【11:07】【AAPL】Apple’s India plant attacked by hackers; leaked iPhone 18 real photos, chips, and supplier lists posted to the dark web

【09:43】【Japanese yen moves】The yen breaks below 162 vs. the Hong Kong dollar, falling through 4.82; hits a new 40-year low. Analysis: Even if intervention has an effect, it is likely to be temporary

【01:32】【META】WhatsApp rolls out username feature; 3 billion users can avoid displaying phone numbers publicly

【00:57】【GOOGL】Google Cloud lists research AI models, targeting drug and chip materials R&D

【00:19】【AAPL】Apple pushes back against India’s anti-trust investigation, criticizing regulator reports as too rough

====Below are the June 29 U.S. stock market updates====

Monday: Nasdaq rebounds more than 2%; Dow up 306 points; yen at a 40-year low. Key theme: to ensure Fed Governor Lisa Cook won’t make key decisions

With tensions in the Middle East easing, investors picked up U.S. technology stocks, lifting U.S. stocks higher on Monday. The Nasdaq rebounded more than 2%, and the Dow was up as much as 435 points. The market focused on remarks by Fed Chair Waller at an ECB annual meeting this week, searching for clues on the future path of interest rates. The Japanese yen vs. the U.S. dollar hit a 40-year low.

See U.S. stocks at close:

The Dow closed at 52,182 points, up 306 points; the S&P 500 gained 1.18%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.07%.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump currently has no power to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, saying monetary policy should not be subject to political interference. Trump responded on social media that he will take appropriate action in the lawsuit involving Cook to ensure she does not make crucial decisions on monetary policy issues.

In a statement, Cook said the court’s ruling reaffirmed a long-standing principle supporting sound economic management—namely that the Fed must make all policy decisions fully based on evidence and independent judgment, without political interference.

SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq-100 index next month; its share price rose 7.1%. AI software stocks stood out: Alphabet was formally added to the Dow Jones index, with shares up 4.8%. Tesla rose 8.5%.

A group of U.S. companies launched a collective anti-trust lawsuit, suing Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, alleging details including a 700% increase over four years and cutting production of traditional DRAM under the name of HBM. The lawsuit was filed on June 25, which was last Thursday—precisely in line with the timing of the sharp drop in memory stocks. Micron fell another 9.6% and then turned to rise 1.1% at the close. SanDisk (SNDK) fell 9.4% earlier, narrowing its loss to 1.9% at the close.

The plaintiffs allege that Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron used their absolute dominance—over 90%—in the global DRAM market. Publicly, they said they were shifting capacity to high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which has higher profitability, in response to the AI boom. But substantively, they allegedly manufactured shortages. Using HBM as a “smokescreen,” they coordinated to reduce output of traditional DDR3 and DDR4 chips, intentionally creating severe shortages in the retail market and causing the price of ordinary DRAM to surge by about 700% over the past four years. The plaintiffs’ economic rationale argues that in a healthy competitive market, such a spike in prices should attract manufacturers to “expand production” to capture market share, but the three giants instead chose to “collectively contract supply,” showing an obvious understanding of a coordinated monopoly.

On the other hand, the Supreme Court ruling cleared the way for President Trump to freely fire officials at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and most (though not all) officials at agencies that have long been independent from politics. For agencies that have long been protected by politics, this is a historic breakdown. The ruling will greatly expand the president’s power and influence. It overturned the nearly century-old precedent “Humphrey’s Executor.” That precedent held that commissioners of independent agencies may not be removed without a specific cause.

Trump celebrated the ruling on Truth Social, calling it a “major victory,” confirming that he has the power to replace officials: “As the sitting president who won this historic and unprecedented ruling, I feel tremendously honored. This is one of the most important rulings made concerning presidential power.”

However, the 6-to-3 ruling exempted the Federal Reserve (the Fed), consistent with the signal the Supreme Court sent earlier—that the Supreme Court views the central bank differently. Chief Justice John Roberts said the central bank has “a unique historical tradition.”

Trump will stop and talk with Iran, resuming talks in Doha on Tuesday. NYMEX crude oil rose 2.2% to $70.75, and Brent futures rose 1.61% to $73.15.

Balkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, warned that inflation is still too high, but said there are signs that price pressures may ease soon. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said Thursday’s jobs report could show “yet another strong number.” He said the productivity boom brought by AI has disinflationary effects, so the case for supporting rate hikes is not as strong right now.

The U.S. Dollar Index weakened, down 0.2% to 101.13, but the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.381%.

The yen fell 0.14% to 161.98 per U.S. dollar, breaking below the July 2024 low and hitting a new low since 1986. Investors are watching whether Japanese authorities will step in again to support the yen exchange rate.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market conditions are being updated continuously—see: Next page

Intraday moves:

【21:30】Dow opens up 164 points to 52,040 points. Nasdaq up 1.1% to 25,578 points. S&P 500 up 52 points to 7,406 points.

【19:17】Dow futures up 168 points; Nasdaq futures up 1%; S&P 500 futures up 45 points.

【15:18】Dow futures up 95 points to 52,304 points; S&P 500 futures up 37 points to 7,439 points; Nasdaq futures up 219 points or 0.7% to 29,587 points.

【15:18】NYMEX crude oil rose 1% to $69.92; Brent futures rose 0.5% to $72.32. NYMEX gold fell 0.5% to $4,074; spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,058.

【15:01】【AI+Compute power】Compute power can’t keep up with demand; Google reportedly “shuts the tap” on Meta, limiting Gemini usage

【12:44】【Memory】Samsung and SK hynix reportedly plan to invest 10 trillion yuan to expand AI semiconductors; with the South Korean government releasing “three major projects” at 2 p.m. Monday afternoon, Morning Star breaks down hidden risks in the expansion plans

【11:40】【Breaking tradition】U.S. marks its 250th anniversary with a limited “Patriot Passport”; Trump becomes the first sitting president to appear on a passport

【10:46】【AI+Anthropic】Austria proposes EU to attract Anthropic to settle there, hoping to break through U.S. export restrictions

【10:42】【AAPL】Apple reportedly seeks approval to purchase chips from Yangtze Memory to avoid being added to the Entity List. Ming-Chi Kuo: the truth is a 2027 memory supply-demand gap crisis. Citi: boost Yangtze Memory’s global position

【06:46】【Iran crisis】Axios: The U.S. and Iran stop attacking each other; talks about the Strait of Hormuz to be held on Tuesday

【06:00】OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, reportedly delays its public listing until next year, weighing on AI hardware stocks. U.S. stocks were generally soft again last Friday; the Dow fell as much as 305 points and the Nasdaq fell for 5 straight days. The Dow closed at 51,876 points, down 44 points; the S&P 500 was down slightly by 0.05%; and the Nasdaq fell 0.24%.

See U.S. stocks at close:

For recent U.S. stock performance, see: 【U.S. stock close】OpenAI listing delayed to next year; Nasdaq down another 0.2%; Kashkari expects one rate hike this year—Dow gives back 44 points