Chen Xiaobei’s Trading Journal | Golden Week Report · Bear Special Edition (2026.7.11)

Core view: The weekly bearish structure remains unchanged. Every bounce is ammunition delivered to the bears. Short only above 4100, no longs.

I. Weekly Market Review: Spike up then fall back—Bulls get harvested repeatedly

This week’s gold followed a textbook “spike up then fall back” pattern. On Monday, gold surged to a two-week high at 4203, driven by a surprise drop in US 6月 non-farm payrolls新增 only 57k. But the bulls didn’t stay happy for long—once again, the Middle East situation escalated. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement faced the risk of breaking down; oil prices jumped, lifting inflation expectations. That strengthened the US dollar and US Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold, which doesn’t pay interest. From July 6 to July 8, London spot gold fell cumulatively by 2.39%.

On Wednesday, gold briefly dropped to the week’s low at 4021, then found support around the 4000 level and rebounded to 4138. But by Friday, bullish momentum once again weakened. Prices spiked up then fell back, and ultimately closed around 4119.

One-sentence summary: Bulls tried to hold above 4135 three times—three times they were slapped back. This isn’t an attack; it’s just lingering death.

II. The Bears’ Core Logic (Three Dimensions for Verification)

1. Fundamentals: Interest rates are the mountain pressing down on gold

Fed rate-hike expectations haven’t been overturned—only pushed further out. As of July 10, the market still priced a 47.7% probability of a rate hike in September. The newly appointed Fed chair, Wosh, is hawkish; the June meeting minutes showed that most officials believed monetary policy needed to be tightened moderately to achieve the inflation target.

More critically, the transmission path from the Middle East conflict has reversed: conflict pushes up energy prices → raises inflation expectations → strengthens the US dollar and US Treasury yields → pressures gold. Gold used to be a safe-haven asset; now it becomes a victim of rising inflation expectations. As long as oil doesn’t crash, gold has little chance of turning around.

JPMorgan Chase clearly pointed out that the prior “bullish phase” driven jointly by risk-off sentiment and central bank gold buying has ended. The strong negative correlation between gold and real yields on US Treasuries is reasserting itself: for every 1 basis point rise in real yields, gold falls by about $20.

2. Flows: ETFs keep bleeding—bulls’ ammunition runs out

Global gold ETFs have seen net outflows of about 128 tons since late February. North America posted $5.5 billion outflows in June alone; net outflows for the first half totaled $7.7 billion, the weakest performance since 2013.

Although SPDR holdings increased modestly by 3.14 tons to 1005.648 tons on July 9, this is only scattered replenishment after the plunge—far from enough to reverse the bigger trend. ETF funds are still in a net outflow trend, and bulls have no incremental ammunition.

3. Technicals: Death cross + moving average suppression—bear structure stays intact

Weekly level: The weekly bearish structure hasn’t changed. This week closed bearish, trading below the medium-term moving averages, and the Bollinger channel continues to open downward. The 50-day moving average has fallen below the 200-day moving average, forming a “death cross”—the highest-level bearish warning.

Daily level: Since mid-May, after gold lost the Bollinger mid-band, it has hit resistance near the mid-band for the third time and pulled back. The 20-day moving average (4140), the 100-day moving average (4123), and the 200-day moving average (4255) are all overhead. RSI is 40.84, still below the midline. This isn’t a rebound—it’s a textbook “dead cat bounce.”

4-hour level: After rebounding to 4138, price spiked then fell back—bullish momentum has faded. Any bounce toward 4120-4140 is bears handing out money.

III. Key Levels Next Week (Bear Sniper Map)

Level Resistance (short zones) Support (target zones)
First zone 4135-4140 4080-4100
Second zone 4190-4200 4000-4020
Ultimate target 4255 (200-day moving average, strong resistance) 3940 (if broken, new space opens)

Bear lifeline: 3940. Once it breaks, downside space opens to the 3500-3600 range (JPMorgan’s extreme scenario).

Bulls’ last cover: the 4000 psychological level. Break it and it becomes a rout.

IV. Chen Xiaobei’s Bearish Trading Plan

1. Existing shorts: Stop-loss set uniformly above 4160. Targets first at 4080-4050; if it breaks below 4000, add to the position. Ultimate target: 3940.
2. Want to stay flat and short: If on Monday’s open it bounces to 4130-4140, short directly. Stop-loss 4155. Target 4100-4080. If it drops immediately at the open, wait for a pullback toward 4100-4110 to short; don’t chase the selloff.
3. Want to go long (discourage): Not recommended. If you insist on going long, only allow a small-position try-long within 4000-4020, stop-loss 3980, target 4080. But remember: catching bottoms against the trend is the fastest way to lose money.
4. Major risk: Next week, the Fed chair will attend hearings of the House and Senate Financial Committees in sequence. Any dovish remarks could trigger a short-term rebound, but that wouldn’t be a trend reversal—just a better entry price for the bears.

V. Closing

Many people see a rebound near 4000 and think it’s the bottom. But I’ll say one gut-punching line: from 5400 down to 4000, you’ve lost $1,400. Does a $100 rebound count as the bottom? That’s just a dying struggle.

The weekly bearish structure hasn’t changed. The death cross hangs overhead. ETFs keep bleeding, and the interest-rate “mountain” is pressing down. Before a valid move above 4200, all rebounds are just repairs and adjustments within a bear-market context.

My stance is very clear: above 4135, short with your eyes closed, keep your stop-loss in place, and target below 4000. Trend favors the bears; bulls are the enemies of the market.

I’m Chen Xiaobei. Follow the trend—only trade certainty in the bearish trend. See you on the battlefield next week!

⚠️ Risk warning: The above analysis is only my personal trading journal and does not constitute investment advice. Shorting carries unlimited risk (theoretically unlimited losses). Please be sure to set a stop-loss. The market is risky—enter the market with caution.
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