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Next week’s macro outlook: the U.S. Congress hearing in Whash is layered with CPI, and the market expects more clues on the interest-rate outlook
BlockBeats, July 11: This week, tensions between the US and Iran escalated sharply. Strikes between both sides caused the fragile ceasefire agreement—previously holding for about three weeks—to break down. Inflation pressures driven by rising oil prices have once again increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy. Meanwhile, US stocks have largely ignored geopolitical uncertainty, as the “AI trading” craze gathers momentum again. The S&P 500 is approaching its all-time high, and both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recorded two consecutive weekly closes higher. SK Hynix ADR surged 13% on its first day. A fundraising amount of $26.5 billion made it the largest foreign-company IPO by proceeds in US stock market history. Over the coming week, developments in US-Iran tensions, economic data such as the US CPI, and remarks by Federal Reserve officials will keep Wall Street on edge. In particular, people are especially looking to see whether Federal Reserve Chair Waller, under questioning by Congress, can provide more clues about the interest-rate outlook—though it is difficult to reasonably expect much from his decision to cancel forward guidance. A preview of next week’s major macro data events is as follows:
Monday
Fed governor Waller delivers remarks
Tuesday
US ADP employment for the week ended June 27 (weekly change)
US June CPI and core CPI
Fed Chair Waller attends the House Financial Services Committee “Fed Semiannual Monetary Policy Report” hearing
2027 FOMC permanent voter and Chicago Fed president Goolsbee participates in a fireside chat
Wednesday
US June PPI and core PPI
FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed president Williams delivers remarks
Fed Chair Waller attends the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee “Fed Semiannual Monetary Policy Report” hearing
The Fed releases the Beige Book
Thursday
US weekly initial jobless claims for the week ended July 11, US June retail sales (month-over-month), and the US July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index
2026 FOMC permanent voter and Dallas Fed president Logan delivers remarks
Fed vice chair Jefferson delivers remarks on the economy and monetary policy