#世界杯冠军预测 World Cup Round of 16 Preview — Argentina vs Switzerland: the last match in the quarterfinals—will there be an upset?

Argentina’s start in this World Cup has been very smooth: in the group stage, they won all 3 matches with ease, going 3-for-3. Algeria and Austria are not exactly weak teams, but they had no answer against Argentina. As for Jordan—if Argentina had put in even a bit more effort from the midfield and had their forwards tracked and ran a little more, this would have been a rout. But with their spot already secured as group winners and a big rotation in the starting XI, a 3-1 still counts as a very good score.

Then in the knockout stage, the situation took a sharp turn. Against Cabo Verde, Argentina twice took the lead and were twice pegged back, and even the two goals in extra time came only after a corner “went backward.” That kind of thing is unlikely to happen to Argentina again in a short time. Meanwhile, in the match against Egypt, Argentina got hit right out of the gates: they conceded at 15 minutes and Messi had a penalty miss at 21 minutes. Although they escaped the worst in the second half, just a few minutes later Egypt rewrote the score to 0-2. However, in the final stretch, Argentina suddenly woke up—between 79 and 92 minutes, they scored three goals in a short span to overturn the match. It was a breathtaking, almost epic comeback.

So the question is: facing Cabo Verde’s “reckless audacity,” Argentina indeed seemed a bit caught off guard. But against Egypt—the team whose actual capabilities against strong sides are even weaker (their defense)—why did they manage to force Argentina’s “South American bloodline,” requiring them to gamble everything to complete the turnaround? Or was it simply that Argentina’s earlier matches had gone too smoothly, so smoothly that it fit their expectations and there was no opponent “pushing their luck”? And yet Argentina’s defense now isn’t particularly good (back in 2022 it wasn’t great either). Goals coming off the opponent’s counterattacks and being “cut off at the neck” with height just landed exactly on Argentina’s weak spots.

No exception: in both knockout matches, Argentina in the early phase didn’t play at a high enough tempo and couldn’t reach a very intense level. Looking at the essence through the surface, this is also related to the time interval between knockout matches. Before the final, aside from the teams that played the first round earlier, before the second round there would be a longer break. The “bottom-half of the group” teams—once they enter the knockout stage, it means playing one match every 4 days. To win this World Cup, a team has to go through 5 rounds of knockout games. A title-contending team can’t waste too much energy early on against mud-and-mud teams like Cabo Verde and Egypt. Even if it doesn’t go as planned—and Argentina’s current fitness situation is even worse than teams that burn out energy early—their initial intentions still aren’t wrong. Also, no matter how big Messi’s attacking contribution is, if he runs one step less, then a teammate must run one step more. If 10 people are running 11-person running volume— even if Argentina now has enough depth and “fitness monsters,” reducing running time by playing at a slower pace is still necessary. As for letting Messi play extra time and forcing out the “true form of the right winger’s martial soul”—that’s just football: anything can happen on the pitch, and matches change in an instant.

Compared with Argentina, Switzerland is a team that has benefited from the schedule and group seeding. They were assigned to Group B in the group stage. In the Round of 32, they rested for 3.5 days more than Algeria, and in the Round of 16 they rested for another day more than Colombia. They never were a team expected to go very far in the first place, and since their approach is one that raises the intensity to the max in every match, taking advantage of timing and then going far is completely reasonable. Also, Switzerland “stole” Canada’s “home-match life.” From the third group-stage round onward, their last 3 matches were played in Vancouver. And between the third group-stage round and the Round of 32, they had 8 days of rest; between the Round of 32 and the Round of 16, they had nearly 5 days of rest. With no travel fatigue, they fully focused on recovery and adjustment. So their long-awaited run into the World Cup quarterfinals is no surprise—and the geographical advantage was also maximized.

In terms of match content, after their first game was a “calm sea” after the opener, Switzerland unexpectedly got a breakout performance from Manzambi against Bosnia. So against Canada and against Algeria, Manzambi was named in the starting XI. In both games, Manzambi almost single-handedly carried things in attack, and they won both matches comfortably. In the most recent match against Colombia, Switzerland’s defense didn’t have much wrong with it, and their attack was also fairly organized. But it can’t be ignored that without Manzambi, Switzerland’s attack wasn’t sharp enough. Across the full match, they didn’t even create a single absolute chance—this is a major problem, and Manzambi will also be absent from the next games.

This time, Switzerland’s “home advantage” has run out. At least Argentina settled things in regular time. Even if they burned out their fitness in the final half hour, it was still better than having to play an extra half hour. On the other hand, Switzerland: in the previous round, they not only kicked off 4 hours later than Argentina, they also played extra time and penalties. When the two sides meet now, Switzerland no longer has the timing advantage.

Argentina’s target is to defend the title. After Switzerland reached the Round of 16, they play one game at a time—every step forward is profit. The two teams’ mindsets are completely different. Argentina’s current 4-4-2 system lacks a breakthrough threat on the flanks, so it does feel a bit “constipated.” The issue is that they need enough midfielders to make up for the fact that Messi’s defensive running isn’t sufficient. It’s a hard trade-off on both offense and defense. This is a long-term, mature system; unless necessary, don’t add “extra bodies.” Argentina has no reason, before the all-in gambling phase, to put in an attacking winger and ruin their defensive structure themselves. Switzerland’s approach can only be to use Enobelo’s height to hammer in header goals. After all, the facts show that without Manzambi’s “bull-charging advance,” their counterattack speed is simply not up to standard.