There’s a trader on Polymarket who specializes in weather contracts and made $16,427.

His approach isn’t complicated: he buys when the price is between 15 and 60 cents, then waits for it to rise to $1.
How exactly does he do it?
→ He specifically looks for those “Yes” contracts that the market is dumping—meaning a very narrow temperature range that everyone thinks is unlikely to happen, where the price gets pushed very low.
→ Each buy size is between $130 and $1,700.
→ Then he just waits—until right before the close.
He’s not a meteorology expert, and he doesn’t know the weather better than anyone else. He just finds places where the “market has already decided it can’t happen,” then bets that the market’s judgment is wrong.
His three biggest trades:
· New York, 72-73°F: $1,517 turned into $5,832, ROI 284%
· Los Angeles, 70-71°F: $1,731 turned into $3,298, ROI 91%
· Miami, 76-77°F: $499 turned into $2,946, ROI 491%
His edge:
Most people look for certainty—he does the opposite, focusing on markets with so much uncertainty that nobody wants to bet on them. The advantage just happens to be hidden in places like that.
This doesn’t look like trading—it’s more like playing a lottery in reverse, and he’s the one selling the tickets.