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Switch Supercycle: AI’s “third compute bottleneck”—will Ethernet dominate the trillion-dollar feast?
Goldman Sachs’ latest research report data shows that it has raised its outlook for AI Ethernet data center switches by an average of 9% for 2026–2030. It expects that by 2030, the total data center switch market (including legacy) will reach $124.5 billion. In Q1 2026, the global Ethernet switch market size surged 39.8% year over year to $15.4 billion, of which high-speed switches for AI data centers reached $10.0 billion, up 61% year over year. NVIDIA topped the rankings for the data center Ethernet switch market for the first time, with a 21.5% market share, followed closely by Arista with 20.7%. 800G switches have become the absolute mainstay of AI backend networks, while 1.6T is expected to ramp up starting in the second half of 2026, as the commercial adoption inflection point for CPO technology has arrived.
Which segments can participate in division of labor and benefit?