US stocks are almost setting new highs—why is BTC still “playing dead” above $60k?

The S&P 500 is about to touch a record high, yet the crypto market is still grinding it out at above $60k? Many people haven’t figured out the underlying logic behind this U.S. stock rally, and whether it can really let the crypto market “drink from the same pot.”
First, here’s the most straightforward snapshot: as of July 10 in Eastern Time, the S&P 500 closed at 7,575.39 points, just one last step away from its all-time peak. This rally was not blown up by emotions; behind it are three solid supports:
Why is the U.S. stock market pushing toward record highs?
First, AI profits have truly materialized—it’s not just storytelling. The market expects S&P 500 second-quarter net profits to rise 24% year over year. Among them, the technology sector’s earnings growth could reach 65%. Semiconductor and AI hardware companies’ results really exploded. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 88% in Q2—basically the money spent on capital expenditures is starting to be cashed into profits. This is not a valuation bubble; fundamentals are pushing the index upward.
Second, rate-hike expectations finally cooled off. Previously, the market was betting on consecutive rate hikes in July and September, but CME data shows the probability of staying put in July has risen to 74.9%. Combined with slower employment data and slightly easing inflation stickiness, U.S. Treasury yields have fallen. The market finally feels confident enough to price risk assets.
Third, the consensus on a soft landing is getting stronger. Consumption hasn’t collapsed, unemployment hasn’t jumped, and after keeping high interest rates for so long, the economy still hasn’t run into major problems. The market increasingly believes the Federal Reserve can bring inflation down without triggering a recession, so risk appetite naturally returned.
What impact does this have on the crypto market? Don’t get too excited yet
Many people’s first reaction is: “Stocks up = crypto should also go up,” but reality is not that simple.
First, in Q2 the two were actually badly decoupled.
The S&P 500 rose about 15% in Q2, and the Nasdaq gained 27.5%, but BTC fell 14% over the same period—there’s a 40-point “scissors spread.” The core reason is fund diversion: risk-on capital from institutions all ran into AI tech stocks, while the crypto market was essentially bled.
Second, in the short term it’s emotional support, not an upward driving force.
Now BTC’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 is roughly 0.6 to 0.7, a “down together but not up together” situation: if U.S. stocks crash, crypto will definitely collapse too; but if U.S. stocks grind higher and set new highs slowly, crypto may not be able to keep up. The biggest role of U.S. stocks strengthening is to prop up crypto’s bottom and prevent it from falling further—but trying to ride a bull cycle powered by U.S. stocks is still too early.
Finally, the real turning point depends on whether the Federal Reserve shifts course.
If U.S. stocks keep printing new highs and inflation keeps falling, forcing the Fed to move from “not hiking” to “cutting,” then the expectation of looser liquidity will truly transmit into the crypto market. At that time, when funds overflow from high-level U.S. stock positions, crypto assets may finally get their turn to catch up on gains. But right now, it’s nowhere near that stage.
One-sentence summary:
U.S. stocks right now are an “independent, fundamentals-driven trend,” while the crypto market is still waiting for its own catalyst. Don’t see the S&P 500 hit new highs and rush in to bottom-fish BTC—both are not in the same narrative cycle right now. If U.S. stocks stay steady, crypto can at most avoid falling; only when the money in U.S. stocks has earned enough and starts looking for higher-volatility targets will that be the crypto opportunity.
Do you think this U.S. stock new high will eventually lead to funds spilling over into the crypto market? Chat in the comments.
#BTC # Cryptocurrency #S&P 500 close near record high