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On-chain structure: build-up at the bottom is progressing, but not yet complete
Glassnode’s latest report shows that BTC has remained below the following levels for about five months in a row:
Short-term holder cost basis of about $72,200;
True Market Mean of about $76,600.
Loss realization by long-term holders has accounted for about 43% of total realized value, with a peak of about $280 million per day—the highest since December 2022. At the same time, derivatives positions have been clearly deleveraged, but the options skew curve still remains defensively tilted.
Meanwhile, about 6% of BTC’s circulating supply last rotated within the 58k–64k range, forming relatively thick on-chain cost support; BTC’s 200-week moving average is around $62,873.
Potential impact: bullish in the medium term, two-way in the short term.
The cost-dense zone is favorable for absorption, but long-term holder loss realization has not yet cooled meaningfully, suggesting that sell pressure has not fully ended.