Institution: Next week, there will be a series of dense speeches by Federal Reserve officials; you need to pay attention to how the officials interpret the CPI data and any potential inclination toward further rate hikes.

Golden Finance reported on July 11 that Deutsche Bank said that after weeks of relatively quiet remarks from Federal Reserve officials, this week will see a surge in speeches ahead of the blackout period. The most watched item is that Waller will kick things off with a speech on Monday at the New York Association for Business Economics. Fed Chair Powell? (actually “沃什主席”) will testify on Tuesday and Wednesday, and several officials will deliver outlook speeches after the June CPI data release (Cook on Wednesday, Vice Chair Jefferson, Dallas Fed’s Logan, and Kansas City Fed’s Schmid on Friday). It’s expected that Waller will reiterate his recent remarks while remaining silent on future policy actions. And because Waller is usually more willing to lay out his policy response mechanism and expectations in detail, his speech will be closely watched to pick up any signals of his policy inclinations.

For outlook-type speeches, we will focus on how officials interpret this week’s inflation data, and whether any officials are inclined to raise rates in July. As shown in the June meeting minutes, “several” officials believed there was reason to hike rates last month. Since then, the situation has been mixed: oil prices and inflation expectations have eased, but later partially rebounded; and the unemployment rate has fallen further. A dissenting vote supporting a rate hike at the July meeting cannot be ruled out. (10x)