#加密市场观察 Geopolitical expectations swing back and forth repeatedly, and the crypto market stages a “news-driven frenzy” squeeze

This round of broad cryptocurrency gains is not driven by fundamentals, but is a typical risk-on sentiment repair rally. Against the backdrop of uncertainty over whether the U.S.-Iran negotiation news is true and a substantial real decline in shipping throughput through the Strait of Hormuz, market volatility (Volatility) has been significantly amplified, with leveraged funds becoming the biggest casualties.

### 1. Market recap: emotion-driven, pulse-like rallies

In the early trading session on July 11 (Beijing time), crypto assets rose across the board. Ethereum (+3%) led major coins, while Bitcoin followed with a gain of 1.55%. Based on on-chain data and the structure of the derivatives market, there are no signs of incremental capital flowing in; the move is more attributable to short liquidation and forced position closures (Short Squeeze).

According to CoinGlass, in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the entire market reached 211 million US dollars, involving 56,000 people. Among them, the vast majority of liquidations occurred in the “expectation gap” stage before the announcement of the news. This confirms the current market’s fragility: in an environment with extremely high macro uncertainty, high-leverage strategies are easily hit by sudden geopolitical headlines.

### 2. Geopolitical logic: the “talks-in-parallel” game between the U.S. and Iran creates an expectation gap

At present, the market’s trading logic for Middle East developments is focused on a game of “talks in parallel”:

1. A news “round-robin” of contradictory messages: Trump claimed that he had “agreed to continue negotiations but ended the ceasefire,” while Iranian officials denied the specific arrangements for “next week’s Swiss talks.” This misalignment of official statements makes it difficult for the market to price the risk premium (Risk Premium) accurately.
2. Substantive shipping disruptions: compared with diplomatic talking points, hard data is more worth watching. Kpler shows that transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz has been falling for two consecutive days; on July 9, there were only 22 vessels, and the Oman-side shipping lanes are nearly shut down. As a global energy artery, the decline in throughput directly raises maritime transport costs and insurance premiums. Although it has not yet triggered a surge in oil prices, it constitutes a potential supply-side risk.

### 3. Strategy outlook: beware “buy expectations, sell facts”

In the short term, the correlation between the crypto market and the geopolitical situation has increased significantly, but this correlation is highly unstable.

**Trading perspective:** The current market is a typical “news-driven trading” scenario. Given that Iran emphasizes that information will be released “only through official channels,” the market may still face disturbances from false messages later on. Investors are advised to reduce leverage and avoid chasing rallies or selling in panic during periods when liquidity is thin.

**Macro perspective:** If transit data through the Strait of Hormuz continues to remain weak, it will gradually feed into crude oil prices, which could then lead to a rebound in global inflation expectations and suppress the room for major central banks to cut interest rates. At that time, risk assets may face dual pressure from tighter liquidity and rising safe-haven sentiment.

**Summary:**

The market is currently in a high-volatility cycle of “buy when rumors spread, sell when the news is disproven.” For investors, the better strategy right now is to stay on the sidelines and wait for the U.S. and Iran to confirm the negotiation schedule through official channels, or wait for a trend turning point in the strait’s transit data. Before then, any trend tracking based on rumors may face an extremely high risk of drawdown.