Now in July, I still firmly believe the current rise is only a mid-cycle rebound in a bear market, not a bottom reversal. Another round of deep sell-off and bottom-hunting is still coming. Based on the four-year halving-cycle historical pattern: after the halving, a top is seen, then about 12 months later the bear market builds a bottom. This cycle’s BTC halving in April 2024; the top in November 2025. Pushing it forward by 12 months lands exactly in the October–December 2026 bottoming window.

Personally, I expect the structural bottom (major bottom) for BTC to appear in the 42,000–46k USDT range. The structural bottom price for ETH (corresponding to BTC at 42,000–46,000) is estimated to be in the 1,250–1,400 USDT range. The extreme “golden pit” (BTC must wick down into the 37,000–40k range) would bring ETH’s extreme “golden pit” to the 1,050–1,200 USDT range.

How to confirm the true bottom (4 resonance signals, none can be missing)
1. Macro: The Federal Reserve releases clear signals of rate cuts, and US Treasury yields continue to fall;
2. On-chain: The BTC miner selling wave ends; exchange spot inventories continue to decline; the panic index drops to a historical extreme;
3. Technicals: The weekly KDJ enters oversold below 20, then forms a golden cross; price holds above the weekly MA5 and stops making new lows;
4. Flows: Spot ETFs stop persistent net outflows and see continuous days of capital returning. $BTC