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On the daily chart, gold price is again stalling around the Bollinger Band middle line near $4,135. On the four-hour chart, a small double top formed at 4,137-38.
Key resistance above: $4,135-4,145. Only if it breaks above here will there be a chance to extend the rebound structure and push toward 4,200 and even 4,240.
Key support below: $4,092-4,093 is the first top-bottom flip level. Further down, $4,060 and $4,000 are two defenses. If it breaks below $4,000 again, then it will likely head to $3,935.
In the short term, it is most likely to trade in a choppy tug-of-war range between $4,080 and $4,160.
So what about next week?
Two big events.
First, on July 14, the U.S. June CPI data. This is the last major inflation report before the Fed’s late-July policy decision meeting. Last month’s CPI year-over-year growth was already 4.2%. If the June numbers keep rising, a September rate hike is almost a sure thing.
Second, Fed Chair Waller will submit the monetary policy report to Congress for the first time. He will be questioned in the House and the Senate next Tuesday and Wednesday.
With either of these two events, if something goes off script, the gold price will have to “shake three times.”