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2026.7.11 Price Movement Forecast and Opening/Positioning Strategy (for personal learning and review only)
Market outlook
1 High-range consolidation narrowing (75% probability): The range 637-646 1778-1811 grinds back and forth. The Bollinger Bands keep narrowing. There’s no high-volume breakout over the weekend to digest the previous overbought indicators with time. On Monday, funds return to reselect the direction.
2 Slight pullback to support then rebound (20% probability): In the short term, a minor dip to 637 near the Bollinger lower band and the MA60 support (ETH 1775-1882). The buy-side support is sufficient, so the downside room is limited. After tagging the level, it rebounds directly above 644 and 1805.
3 Breakout with volume above the prior high 64630 1811 (5% very low probability): Without major incremental capital over the weekend, it’s hard to sustain the push higher. Only a sudden positive development from the Iran-Iraq war can drive a one-way up move.
--------------------------- Fibonacci line ----------------------
Strategy 1: Buy on pullback (conservative first choice) BTC: First position 63900-637 Add positions: 634-633 Stop loss: 632 (below the 1H lifeline) First take profit: 645 Second take profit: target 653, or exit after the first take profit
ETH: Hold 1778-1782; stop loss: 1766 (below the lifeline) after a 15-min close with a lower shadow bullish candle; take profit: 1802-1810.
Strategy 2: Lightly short at high levels (speculate on narrowing pullback for short-term arbitrage) BTC: 645-647 15-min long upper wick, RSI turning down; stop loss: 649 (above the prior high to prevent a wick) Take profit: 639-637 to support; close all positions
ETH: Stop loss 1816; take profit 1780