Gold outlook for next week’s price action analysis

I. Daily timeframe: overall direction judgment

1. Since the decline in late March, gold has generally shown a downtrend characterized by lower highs and probing for lower lows. Although bullish candles rebounded during the period, they did not break the downtrend, and the bigger picture remains downward.

2. Key resistance levels: focus on 4200. Only if there is a valid breakout and the closing price is above 4200 can there be follow-through room for further upside; targets above could be seen at 4300. Until the level is broken, the downtrend remains unchanged.

II. Hourly timeframe: interpretation of price action

1. Prior price action: from Monday to Wednesday there were consecutive declines, with the low touching 4020. After that, once 4090 was broken, price rebounded to 4145. On Friday (July 10), price pulled back; in the evening it briefly dipped below 4090 but then quickly surged back up. This is considered a fakeout (an invalid break).

2. Criteria for a valid break: it must satisfy “breakout + hourly timeframe closing running below continuously.” 1-minute fluctuations have no reference value. This probe below 4090 does not constitute a valid break.

3. Current status: the bulls have not fully surrendered. Overall price action is a slightly upward consolidation, but the rebound strength is weak.

III. Key levels and outlook for next week

1. Key support levels: 4020, 4050, 4070. They show characteristics of higher lows and a broken higher high. 4050/4070 are the core supports. If they are broken validly, the bullish trend of this rebound will end.

2. Key resistance level: 4140. If it is broken validly, upside could extend to the 4180–4200 area.

3. Overall conclusion: as long as support at 4050/4070 is not broken, gold will still maintain a consolidation with a slight upward bias; if 4140 breaks, it will open up further upside room.
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