Oil must fall. Why?

Brother Zhan, I was liquidated in my crude oil futures position. I never expected the oil price could be cheaper than it was even before the war. It’s an insult to my intelligence. I lost terribly. Was it because I didn’t use leverage properly? Can you wake me up again? In 2021 I lost 1 million trading futures, and this time I lost 500,000 again. It’s painful—no matter how much I should have learned, I still didn’t.

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Classmate, your problem has two parts. First, you didn’t realize the issue with trading crude oil “futures.” Up to now you still think it was because “the leverage wasn’t used properly,” maybe it was a matter of the multiplier or the timing—rather than the actual problem: you using leverage itself when you’re betting on direction.

Futures aren’t a bad thing. Even in the crypto world, contracts are used by many market makers to earn certain, predictable money. In our private meeting circle, we also have a boss who makes a living by doing exactly that. But it was never meant to be a tool for betting on direction. When it exists, it doesn’t carry that kind of “gene.” It’s meant to hedge risk. For example, if you already have a related business and don’t want to take the risk of long-term profit volatility, you use it to lock in profits—this is how you use it, not to go all in gambling.

Second, didn’t you look at my previous prediction about the Federal Reserve? The June 18 article—clear, unmistakable, and easy to understand. June 17, Feb 3—earliest trace can be traced back as far as a year and a half ago, which is January 16, 2025. This is a con—exactly a “we want both, and we want more.” To build an image as an “independent strongman,” Worsh pretends not to carry out Trump’s ideas, all while trying to win the trust of the public and institutions. He first talks as if they’re going to hike rates, stirring up market expectations. Then they don’t hike rates, yet they still achieve the effect of a rate hike: the dollar stays strong, and gold stays weak. After that, the Hormuz Strait issue eases. Iran uses the dollar to settle oil, and the oil price falls sharply. The domestic inflation problem is resolved. Then they do it in a roundabout, hesitant, half-hearted way—saying it as if they are still reluctant to cut rates, beating around the bush and avoiding clarity—until finally they say, “The data shows we really should cut rates,” making themselves look like pure data people. Then they cut rates. Trump is happy, and the interest expense on U.S. debt drops dramatically.

Isn’t the script exactly the same as what I described? In this situation, you’re still betting on oil price longs—you’re clearly courting death. If oil keeps rising, inflation won’t come down even for a million years; if inflation can’t come down, they can never cut rates—only hike rates. But will they dare? If they do hike rates, how will they pay the interest on U.S. Treasury bonds? That money has to be squeezed out from everyday Americans’ welfare. So I said he only “talks big about rate hikes.” You not only used the wrong tool—you completely got the direction wrong.

Make money properly and start over. Just don’t keep falling down in the same place again. #Gate股票转仓功能上线