Half-cycle old playbook: the 300k target sounds far away, but once institutional funds move in, the cost of pumping also rises with the tide. Whether this round can replicate history is really hard to say.

Crypto halving cycle challenge: analysts’ target of $300k to $500k. History shows that the market bottoms 18 months before the halving and tops 16–18 months after the halving; the next cycle may start later this year. Blantr expects the peak to be $300k to $500k, while Bernstein predicts it will reach $500k in 2029. As the market becomes increasingly institutionalized, the capital required to drive the rally will increase significantly; in 2026 Q2, digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses, marking the longest losing cycle since 2022.