A Brief Analysis of BTC Short-Term Trends: From Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationships, Order Flow, and Price Action

$BTC
I. Dow Theory
Main trend (1-hour timeframe): The major downtrend since the historical high on May 6 at 82,800 saw an important turn on July 1. The price fell sharply from 82,800 through the June 1 secondary high at 73,975, bottoming at 57,721 on July 1; the cumulative drop was 25,079. After the bottom on July 1, bulls launched a strong counterattack; on July 10 the rebound reached 64,662 (a new high since July), forming a “notably rising lows” structure (57,721 → 61,470 → 62,256 → 62,404). The current price 64,094 has held above the key level of 63,500. The main trend still remains bearish, but downward momentum has clearly weakened, and price is approaching the downtrend line from the high on June 1.
Short-term trend (15-minute timeframe): The short-term uptrend from the low at 57,721 since July 1 was confirmed on July 10. The short-term swing lows rose from 57,721 (7-1 01:00) to 61,470 (7-8 15:15) → 62,256 (7-7 16:45) → 62,404 (7-9 12:45), while the short-term swing highs rose from 64,597 (7-6 21:00) to 64,662 (7-10 13:45). On July 10, a “higher lows + higher highs” pattern appeared (64,662 > 64,597), shifting the short-term trend from “pullback consolidation” to “rebound acceleration.”
Dow conclusion: The main trend is still downward, but after bottoming on July 1, selling momentum has exhausted, and on July 10 a new high since July was made. The short-term trend has entered a rebound acceleration phase. 63,000 is the short-term lifeline; if it breaks, expect a pullback to 61,500–60,500. If price can hold above 64,000 and break 64,662, the rebound targets are 65,500–67,500.
II. Chan Theory (Chan Theory)
Fractal structure: On the 15-minute timeframe chart, multiple valid top fractals and bottom fractals are labeled.
Top fractals: Appearing at 64,597 (July 6 21:00), 64,135 (July 7 17:00), 63,887 (July 7 10:00), 63,340 (July 8 10:45), 64,662 (July 10 13:45), etc. The top fractals show a “first moving down, then moving up significantly” pattern, rising from the 63,300 area to the 64,600 area, indicating that bullish strength has regained dominance above 64,000.
Bottom fractals: Appearing at 62,256 (July 7 16:45), 61,470 (July 8 15:15), 62,404 (July 9 12:45), 63,100 (July 10 04:45), etc. The bottom fractals show a clearly rising pattern, moving from 61,470 up into the 63,100 area, indicating that bullish follow-through intent is steadily increasing.
Bi (legs) and segments: From the bottom fractal at 61,470 to the top fractal at 64,662 (July 10 13:45), a very strong upward leg is formed, with a rise of about 3,192—very forceful. Previously, from the top fractal at 64,597 to the bottom fractal at 61,470 (July 8 15:15), a downward leg was formed, with a drop of about 3,127—also very forceful. The strength of the two legs is comparable, showing aggressive competition between bulls and bears in the 61,500–64,600 range; but with the latest upward leg breaking the prior high, bulls have a slight edge.
Central (Chung) zone: In the 62,000–64,000 range, the July 2–10 candlesticks are densely interwoven, forming an upward central zone in the sense of Chan Theory, and price has already broken above the upper boundary of that zone—belonging to an acceleration stage after a central-zone breakout. The current price 64,094 is above this central zone, indicating a pullback-confirmation stage after the breakout.
Chan conclusion: The upward leg is extremely strong (+3,192) and has broken the prior high, showing that bulls fully dominate. Currently, price is in the pullback-confirmation stage after a central-zone breakout. For short-term focus, watch whether an effective support can form near 63,500; if it does, the upward leg can continue. If price directly breaks below 63,000, the downward leg extends, with targets at 61,500–60,500.
III. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on 1-hour wave structure, the wave pattern of the move since the May 6 high at 82,800 is divided into a typical “higher-order five-wave decline completed + ABC rebound C-wave acceleration” structure:
1st wave (violent selloff): From 82,800 crashing down to the 78,500 area (May 7), about -4,300.
2nd wave (rebound): From 78,500 rebounding to 81,051 (May 10), about +2,551.
3rd wave (main selloff wave): From 81,051 crashing down to 59,095 (June 5), about -21,956. This is the most damaging main selloff wave.
4th wave (rebound): From 59,095 rebounding to 67,247 (June 15), about +8,152. The 4th wave rebound is moderate in strength.
5th wave (ending selloff): From 67,247 crashing down to 57,721 (July 1), about -9,526. The 5th wave is about 0.4 times the total decline of waves 1–3, which is a typical ending wave.
A wave (rebound): From 57,721 rebounding to 64,597 (July 6), about +6,876. The A-wave rebound is strong and has already reached the 0.618 retracement level of the 5th-wave drop.
B wave (pullback): From 64,597 pulling back to 61,470 (July 8 15:15), about -3,127. The B-wave pullback is about 45.5% of the A-wave, which is a typical medium-depth pullback.
C wave (in acceleration): From 61,470 rebounding to 64,662 (July 10 13:45), about +3,192. The C wave has unfolded and has strong momentum; if it is roughly equal-length to the A wave, the target is about 68,300; if the C wave is 1.618 times the A wave, the target is about 71,500. The current C wave has already broken above the A-wave high at 64,597, confirming C-wave acceleration.
Wave conclusion: The market is in the C-wave acceleration stage of an ABC rebound after the five-wave decline completed. The C wave has broken above the A-wave high and confirms acceleration. If price can hold above 64,000 and break 64,662, the C-wave targets are 65,500–67,500; if price breaks below 63,000, the C wave fails and the ABC rebound ends.
IV. Volume-Price Analysis
Overall volume-price characteristics: During the July 1 violent selloff phase, there was a very obvious surge in volume—after panic sell orders flooded out, volume quickly shrank. In the July 1–6 rebound phase, trading volume increased moderately, showing orderly entry by bullish funds. In the July 7–8 pullback phase, trading volume surged again, indicating that short-side sell pressure returned. In the July 9–10 rebound phase, trading volume increased significantly, showing bullish funds returning with stronger momentum. Overall, it presents a positive volume-price combination: “violent selloff with volume expansion + base-building with volume contraction + rebound with volume expansion + pullback with volume expansion + another rebound with volume expansion breaking through.”
Key volume-price nodes:
At 01:00 on July 1, a high-volume bearish candle appeared (trading volume at the 850 million level), dropping from 60,000 to 57,721; the real body was about 2,279, confirming panic selling concentrated in; a stage low was formed.
At 21:00 on July 6, a high-volume bullish candle appeared (trading volume at the 450 million level), pushing up from 63,000 to 64,597; the real body was about 1,597, confirming the A-wave top.
At 15:15 on July 8, a high-volume bearish candle appeared (trading volume at the 320 million level), crashing from 63,000 to 61,470; the real body was about 1,530, confirming the B-wave low was formed.
At 06:00 on July 9, a high-volume bullish candle appeared (trading volume at the 490 million level), rising from 62,400 to 62,900; the real body was about 500, confirming the start of the C wave.
At 09:45 on July 10, a high-volume bullish candle appeared (trading volume at the 380 million level), pushing from 63,100 to 64,300; the real body was about 1,200, confirming C-wave acceleration.
At 13:45 on July 10, a high-volume bullish candle appeared (trading volume at the 210 million level), pushing from 64,000 to 64,662; the real body was about 662, confirming that bullish power reached a stage peak.
Recent 10 fifteen-minute candlesticks: After oscillating, price fell from 64,300 to 64,094, and volume shows a moderate contraction pattern; the market is waiting for direction selection in the 63,800–64,300 range.
Volume-price conclusion: After the high-volume breakout on July 10, volume contracted in the tail of the session overall, indicating bulls are accumulating momentum. Price is repeatedly contested around 64,000, but with relatively moderate volume—an encouraging volume-price signal. Key observation points: If a rebound to 64,500–64,662 shows high-volume breakout, then the C wave accelerates. If it breaks down below 63,500 again with renewed volume expansion, then the C wave fails.
V. Order Flow
Volume distribution (Volume Profile): The latest 5 days’ volume control point (POC) is at 63,167. This is the most densely traded area between bulls and bears, forming the most important value-zone central point currently. The current price 64,094 is about 927 above the POC, indicating a premium state above the value area (Above Value).
Current position analysis: Price 64,094 is above the POC 63,167, meaning it is in the Above Value region and moderately deviated. In order-flow theory, when price is higher than the POC, it means short-term buyers are dominant and the market is in a premium state. Current price is moving toward the upper edge of the Value Area at 64,126. 64,126 is short-term support, while 65,000 is short-term resistance.
High-Volume Nodes (HVN):
64,000–65,000: Upper resistance HVN (July 10 dense trading area; currently forming)
62,000–63,500: Core support HVN (dense trading area from July 2–9; currently strong support)
61,000–62,000: Secondary support HVN (dense trading area from July 7–8)
59,000–60,000: Extreme support HVN (dense trading area on July 1)
Delta analysis (bottom sub-chart): Delta estimates show that during the July 1 01:00 crash, Delta turned sharply negative (around -6 billion), confirming that aggressive sell orders dominated. On July 8 15:15 at the B-wave low, Delta turned negative again (around -3.5 billion). During the C-wave acceleration on July 10 09:45, Delta rapidly turned positive (around +3 billion), confirming that active buy orders flooded in around 63,000. Current Delta MA12 has risen from near the zero axis into positive territory (+15B), indicating buyer strength is increasing and seller strength is clearly weakening.
Order flow conclusion: Price is above the POC 63,167, so short-term buyers are in control and the market is at a premium. The key HVN resistances above at 64,500 and 65,000: if Delta stays positive and volume breaks out continuously at these levels, there is a chance to push up to 65,500. If Delta turns deeply negative again and price breaks below 63,000, then the C wave fails.
VI. Price Action
Support and resistance levels:
Strong resistance: 82,800 (stage high), 73,975 (June 1 high), 67,500 (June 15 rebound high), 64,662 (July 10 rebound high)
Key resistance: 65,500 (psychological level), 65,000 (round-number level), 64,500 (psychological level)
Key support: 64,000 (round-number level), 63,500 (lower edge of the July 10 consolidation area), 63,167 (POC), 62,404 (July 9 pullback low), 61,470 (July 8 violent selloff low), 60,000 (round-number level), 57,721 (July 1 violent selloff low)
Candlestick patterns:
At 01:00 on July 1, a large bearish candle with an extremely long lower wick appeared (real body about -2,279; lower wick about 1,500). After dropping from 60,000 to 57,721, it rebounded to 59,200, forming a “hammer” bottom pattern.
At 15:15 on July 8, a large bearish candle with an extremely long lower wick appeared (real body about -1,530; lower wick about 800). After crashing from 63,000 to 61,470, it rebounded to 62,100, forming a “hammer” bottom pattern, confirming the B-wave low.
At 09:45 on July 10, a large bullish candle with a long lower wick appeared (real body about +1,200; lower wick about 300). It surged from 63,100 to 64,300, forming a “bullish engulfing” pattern, confirming C-wave acceleration.
At 13:45 on July 10, a bullish candle appeared (real body about +662). It pushed from 64,000 to 64,662, showing sustained bullish strength.
Trend structure:
Short-term: The upward channel from July 8 61,470 is forming; the lower-rail support is around 63,500, and the upper-rail resistance is around 65,000.
Medium-term: The downtrend line since the May 6 high at 82,800 is still valid; price has not broken this trend line yet, but 64,662 is very close to the trend line.
Price action conclusion: In the short term, price is in a strong consolidation area after C-wave acceleration. 64,000 is the near-term long defense line, and 64,662 is the watershed between bulls and bears: if it breaks through, C-wave acceleration continues toward 65,500–67,500; if it fails, price retraces into 63,500–63,000.
Comprehensive assessment
Dow Theory signals that the main trend is still downward, but with selling momentum exhaustion; the short-term trend is in a rebound acceleration phase, with key levels at 64,662 (upside) and 63,000 (downside). Chan Theory shows the upward leg is extremely strong (+3,192) and has broken the prior high; currently price is in the pullback-confirmation stage after a central-zone breakout. Elliott Wave Theory confirms that the five-wave decline has completed, and the ABC rebound’s C wave is accelerating (+3,192), already breaking the A-wave high. Volume-Price analysis shows a positive combination of “violent selloff with volume expansion + base-building with volume contraction + rebound with volume expansion + pullback with volume expansion + another rebound with volume expansion breaking through.” Order flow indicates the POC at 63,167, with price above POC in a premium state, and Delta MA12 has risen back into positive territory. Price action shows multiple patterns—“hammer” + “hammer” + “bullish engulfing” + “bullish candles”—with short-term bulls fully in control.
Short-term strategy suggestions:
Bullish scenario: If near 63,500–64,000 you see volume contraction leading to a stop in selling + a bottom fractal + Delta turning positive, you can go long; targets are 64,500 → 65,000 → 65,500, with a stop loss at 63,000.
Bearish scenario: If the rebound reaches 64,500–64,662 and a top fractal forms along with volume-expanded selling, confirming C-wave failure + extension of the five-wave decline, you can short; targets are 63,500 → 62,500, with a stop loss at 65,200.
Current status: 64,094 is in the strong consolidation zone after C-wave acceleration, and short-term bulls have the advantage. It is recommended to wait for a break above 64,662 to confirm C-wave acceleration before chasing longs, or wait for a breakdown below 63,000 to confirm C-wave failure before chasing shorts.