Tech stocks continued to prop up the Nasdaq, which notched a third straight day of gains; SK hynix’s ADR jumped 13% on its first day; Brent crude rose then reversed into a decline; gold followed a V-shaped move but still closed lower

US stocks continued to rise on Friday, with the S&P 500 closing near its all-time high as technology stocks led the broader market. SK hynix’s ADR rose more than 13% on its first day. Meta surged by about 6%, and AI trading returned to the main theme.

Meanwhile, tensions in Iran continued to heat up, but the market showed clear resilience, choosing to ignore geopolitical risks and focus on the upcoming earnings season.

On Friday, Trump announced that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement “has ended.” Oil prices briefly spiked and then quickly pulled back. Crude oil posted a third straight day of declines, providing additional support for the market.

The S&P 500 closed up 0.42% at 7,575.39, just 0.45% away from the all-time closing high reached on June 2. The Nasdaq rose 0.29% and the Dow also rose 0.29%. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.2%, the Nasdaq gained 1.7%, while the Dow fell 0.5%.

Market attention has already shifted to next week. Major banks will kick off Q2 earnings on Tuesday, along with June CPI data the same day, which is viewed as the most important U.S. economic data next week. Analysts expect S&P 500 component companies’ Q2 earnings per share to grow 24% year over year, with tech companies as the main driver.

Iran risk premium fades fast, oil declines dominate sentiment

Wall Street Insights noted that Trump once again claimed on Friday that the ceasefire had been terminated, then also said that Iran hopes to continue “talks” with the U.S., and that the U.S. has agreed to continue negotiations.

After a brief surge, oil turned lower. WTI crude fell 0.8% to $71.52 per barrel, continuing a three-day losing streak.

Behind this move is a rapid cooling of market expectations for a long-term escalation of the situation. Vikas Dwivedi of Macquarie Group said both sides are constrained by real economic and political limits, and the tense situation is likely to be relatively short-lived.

He emphasized that for the U.S., with fewer available emissions-reduction tools and a risk of oil prices rebounding, plus the ongoing risk that Iran will disrupt Middle Eastern oil infrastructure.

Vikas Dwivedi added that Iran has effectively secured a “pretty good deal.” If it tests Trump’s patience too far, the marginal gains it can obtain would be minimal.

However, oil falling does not mean inflation pressure is fully relieved—such as oil product prices not declining.

Goldman Sachs’ commodities team said that the drop in oil product prices like gasoline is far less pronounced than crude oil. Crack spreads remain a more reliable indicator for actual supply tightness and continue to put upward pressure on interest rates.

This also helps explain why the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has risen despite falling oil prices. The market’s caution toward inflation has not disappeared entirely as crude oil has declined.

Meta leads, SK hynix’s debut ignites chip sentiment

AI trading is back at the center of the stage, driven this time by two main threads.

Meta jumped about 6% in a single day, reaching the highest level since April. Research firm SemiAnalysis released a positive report, giving Meta’s AI computing infrastructure a favorable assessment.

At the same time, Meta launched a new paid frontier model. Even as founder Mark Zuckerberg simultaneously announced that it would launch a historic price war for AI tokens, the market interpreted it as a positive signal. The information technology sector therefore led S&P 500 sector gains, up 1.65% in a single day.

The other main thread came from SK hynix. The Korean memory-chip giant completed an ADR issuance of more than $26B, priced at $149. On Friday’s close, the ADR traded at about $170, a 13% premium to the offering price.

Its listing strengthened market confidence that investment in AI compute infrastructure will continue expanding, and it also extended memory-chip speculative trading that had been largely confined to the Korea market to U.S. retail investors. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index posted a three-day winning streak.

However, performance diverged within technology stocks, with loss-making tech stocks falling 2.2%.

Goldman Sachs’ high-beta momentum basket weakened by 1.4% today, with the decline mainly driven by softness in long positions.

Data showed trading volume shrank dramatically today. Total shares traded across U.S. exchanges were about 14.5 billion, only about 65% of the average 22.5 billion shares traded over the past 20 trading days.

According to Goldman’s trading desk data, the overall activity score for the day was only 4/10. Institutional flows skewed toward selling: long-term funds were net sold with a skew of 24.9%, and hedge funds were net sold with a skew of 12.7%. Under low volume, quantitative trading helped mask institutions’ ongoing de-risking actions, supporting a smoother rise in the index.

High valuations and high expectations create a double test next week

The current S&P 500 trades at roughly 20x forward earnings, below the 21x level seen in late May, but it is only 0.45% away from the all-time high.

The market has already priced in strong earnings growth. According to LSEG I/B/E/S, analysts expect S&P 500 Q2 earnings per share to grow 24% year over year, with tech stocks as the main source of contribution.

But high expectations mean high risk. Mark Hackett of Nationwide said the market overall remains rational and cautious, with no sign of excessive optimism that usually signals a sustained pullback. Still, valuations are on the high side, and investors need earnings data to confirm whether current pricing is justified.

Kenny Polcari of SlateStone Wealth highlighted that an unusual aspect of this earnings season is that the number of S&P 500 companies issuing positive guidance exceeds those issuing negative guidance, with management confidence clearly higher than the historical norm.

UBS’ “Turbu-lens” volatility warning indicator is currently 0.9 (out of 1), the highest since mid-September 2025. Historically, readings at this level have often corresponded with a subsequent notable jump in the VIX.

At the same time, Vanda Research showed that the overall strength of retail net buying fell to the lowest level since the 2020 pandemic period. Even though trading activity remains lively, retail investors are selling with almost the same intensity as they buy.

Next week, large banks will lead the way with Q2 results first. CPI data and remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Waller appearing at congressional hearings will follow. In a backdrop where institutions are quietly trimming positions, retail net buying momentum is weakening, and valuations are elevated, whether this low-volatility, smoothing rally can continue will be answered soon.

On Friday, the S&P 500 closed up 31.75 points, up 0.42%, and rose 1.23% for the week. The fear gauge VIX closed down 5.05% and fell 4.87% for the week. The Consumer Staples ETF closed up more than 1.1%, while the bank industry ETF and the semiconductor ETF rose at least 0.54%.

U.S. stock benchmark indices:

• The S&P 500 closed up 31.75 points, up 0.42%, at 7,575.39. It rose 1.23% for the week, forming an extended-tail V-shaped reversal pattern overall.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 149.60 points, up 0.29%, at 52,637.01. It fell 0.50% for the week.

• The Nasdaq closed up 74.717 points, up 0.29%, at 26,281.607. It rose 1.74% for the week. The Nasdaq 100 index closed up 98.013 points, up 0.33%, at 29,825.11. It rose 1.69% for the week.

• The Russell 2000 index closed down 0.49%, at 2,977.805. It fell 0.61% for the week.

• The fear gauge VIX closed down 5.05%, at 15.04, nearing the January 9 close of 14.49. It fell 4.87% for the week.

U.S. sector ETFs:

• The Consumer Staples ETF closed up more than 1.1%. The Financials ETF and the Semiconductor ETF rose at least 0.54%. The Technology sector ETF, the Global Technology Stocks Index ETF, and the Network Stocks Index ETF rose about 0.2%. The Global Airlines ETF fell 0.99%, and the Biotechnology Index ETF fell 2.68%.

• Year-to-date in 2026, the Semiconductor ETF is up 69.67%. The Global Technology Stocks Index ETF is up 34.19%. The Technology sector ETF and the Energy sector ETF are up at least 24.89%. The Consumer Discretionary ETF fell 1.42%.

(July 10 U.S. sector and industry ETFs)

Magnificent Seven:

• The Wind U.S. Technology Magnificent 7 Index rose 1.14%.

• Meta rose 5.97%, Nvidia rose 4.03%, Tesla rose 0.30%, Microsoft rose 0.19%, Apple fell 0.28%, Alphabet A fell 0.48%, and Amazon fell 0.69%.

Chip stocks:

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 0.06%, at 12,967.163. It rose 2.70% for the week.

• TSMC ADR fell 0.64%, while AMD rose 2.04%.

China concept stocks:

• The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 0.23%, at 6,120.74. It rose 3.53% for the week.

• Among popular China concept stocks, NetEase fell 4.5%, ASML? (Note: “日月光半导体”=ASE) fell 1.2%, Tencent fell 1.1%, PDD fell 0.8%, Alibaba rose 1%, BYD rose 2.9%, and Xiaomi Group rose 3.4%.

Other individual stocks:

• Circle, the “first stablecoin stock,” rose 5%.

ASML fell more than 2%. Eurozone blue-chip indices fell more than 2.2% for the week. The building materials sector fell more than 5.1% cumulatively.

Pan-European indices:

• The European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.04%, at 641.10, and fell 1.79% for the week.

• The Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed down 0.23%, at 6,269.97, and fell 2.23% for the week, continuing to decline from Monday to Wednesday.

Equity indices by country/region:

• Germany’s DAX 30 closed down 0.20%, at 25,067.09, and fell 2.76% for the week, with sharp declines on July 7–8.

• France’s CAC 40 closed up 0.15%, at 8,338.97, and fell 1.99% for the week.

• The UK’s FTSE 100 closed up 0.24%, at 10,497.29, and fell 1.70% for the week.

(July 10 Europe and the U.S. major equity indices performance)

Sectors and individual stocks:

• Among Eurozone blue chips, Argenx fell 4.14%, Siemens Energy fell 2.64%, ASML Holding fell 2.11%, German Rheinmetall (RHM) fell 2.09%, and Eni (Eni), Infineon, Safran, Bayer, and Deutsche Börse all fell between 1.19% and 1.11%, entering the top nine decliners.

• Among all constituents of the European STOXX 600 index, St James’s Place Public Limited Company fell 8.55%, Soitec fell 5.86%, and UCB fell 5.16%, the third-largest decline.

• By sector this week, the STOXX 600 Construction & Materials index fell 5.12% cumulatively, the Industrial Products & Services index fell 3.75%, the Health Care index fell 3.52%, the Basic Resources index fell 2.65%, the Technology index fell 2.54%, the Utilities index fell 2.39%, and the Chemicals index fell 2.17%.

U.S. two-year Treasury yields rose by more than 7 basis points this week. Germany’s 10-year Treasury yield rose by more than 13 basis points this week, the largest weekly increase since May. The UK’s two-year Treasury yield rose by about 10 basis points this week.

U.S. Treasuries:

• At the New York close, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose by 1.01 basis points to 4.5612%. It rose 7.81 basis points for the week, after steady gains from July 6–8.

• The yield on the two-year Treasury rose by 3.14 basis points to 4.2079%. It rose 7.09 basis points for the week. The yield on the 30-year Treasury fell by 0.60 basis points to 5.0587%.

European debt:

• At the European session close, Germany’s 10-year Treasury yield fell by 1.9 basis points to 3.065%. It rose 13.1 basis points for the week overall, trading in the 2.916%-3.118% range, and continued to rise from Monday through Thursday.

• The UK’s 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2.9 basis points to 4.868%. It rose 8.9 basis points for the week.

• This week, France’s 10-year Treasury yield rose by 10.4 basis points to 3.829%; France’s two-year yield rose by 11.2 basis points; and France’s 30-year yield rose by 9.4 basis points.

The U.S. dollar vs. Japanese yen rose 0.4%. Bitcoin rose 0.86%, while Ethereum rose 2.4%.

U.S. dollar:

• At the New York close, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.03% to 100.96. It showed a W-shaped reversal overall. For the week, it rose 0.10%. The trading range was 100.598–101.275.

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.10% to 1,218.91. It fell 0.01% for the week, with a trading range of 1,223.61–1,216.23.

Japanese yen:

• At the New York close, the U.S. dollar vs. Japanese yen fell 0.41% to 161.72 yen. Around 09:00 Beijing time it dropped sharply. For the week, it rose 0.23%, trading in the 161.20–162.71 yen range. Overall, it showed an M-shaped pattern: it rose significantly on July 6 and fell sharply on July 10.

• For the week, the euro vs. yen rose 0.04%, and the pound vs. yen rose 0.62%.

Offshore RMB:

• At the New York close, the USD vs. offshore RMB was 6.7820. Compared with the prior New York close on Thursday, it fell by 140 pips. It rebounded for the second consecutive trading day, trading overall in the 6.7961–6.7764 range intraday.

Crypto:

• At the New York close, Bitcoin rose 0.86% and Ethereum rose 2.4%.

The CFTC COT report shows that for the week of July 7, speculators reduced their net long position in WTI crude by 19,507 contracts to 65,681 contracts.

Crude oil:

• The WTI August crude futures closed down $0.67, down 0.93%, at $71.41 per barrel. It rose nearly 3.96% for the week.

(WTI crude oil futures)

• Brent September crude futures closed down $0.29, down 0.38%, at $76.01 per barrel. Brent rose more than 5.39% for the week.

• Middle East Abu Dhabi Murban crude futures fell 0.99% to $70.66 per barrel, rising 6.29% for the week.

Natural gas:

• NYMEX August natural gas futures settled at $2.94 per million Btu.

• NYMEX August gasoline futures settled at $2.9846 per gallon; NYMEX August heating oil futures settled at $3.5533 per gallon.

Spot gold fell 1.5% this week, while spot copper inched up 1.9%. LME copper futures settled down $5 to $13,484 per ton.

Gold:

• At the New York close, spot gold fell 0.23% to $4,114.36 per ounce. It fell 1.51% for the week, after dropping as low as $4,021.92 in early trading on July 8.

(Spot gold price)

• COMEX gold futures fell 0.12% for the week, settling at $4,120.70 per ounce.

Silver:

• At the New York close, spot silver fell 0.21% to $59.8310 per ounce. It fell 4.13% for the week, after dipping as low as $57.2260 in early U.S. trading on July 8.

• COMEX silver futures fell 1.41% for the week to $60.200 per ounce.

Other metals:

• At the New York close, COMEX copper futures rose 1.90% to $6.2865 per pound.

• Spot platinum fell 0.53% to $1,634.25 per ounce; spot palladium rose 0.48% to $1,279.88 per ounce.

• LME copper futures settled down $5 to $13,484 per ton. LME tin futures settled down $522 to $53,125 per ton. LME aluminum futures settled down $61 to $3,140 per ton.

Risk warning and disclaimer

        The market is risky; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider the special investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs of any individual user. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at your own risk.