“Promoting talks by force” or a “strategic shift”? The U.S. issues its “last warning” to “open the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday”

The US-Iran nuclear talks are moving toward a critical turning point. On Friday, senior officials in the Trump administration made a rare admission that the likelihood of reaching a nuclear deal through peaceful negotiations is steadily decreasing. At the same time, the US issued a time-limited warning to Iran—demanding that it make a commitment by Saturday, stating that the Strait of Hormuz is open and that it has stopped firing on ships.

According to The Wall Street Journal, a senior US official said, if Iran fails to make the above commitment by Saturday, it will face serious consequences, but other officials did not clearly specify this deadline. Trump himself told reporters on Wednesday: "They're violating the agreement every day, lying, deceiving, hurting people. Under the framework of our agreement, they will never have nuclear weapons, but I don't know whether we can still reach an agreement."

Meanwhile, the United States resumed sanctions against Iran this week. Citing information from the US Central Command, Xinhua reported on the 10th that since the 7th, the US military has struck about 170 targets in Iran, with the aim of "responding to Iran's recent attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz." In response, Iran struck US military bases in countries including Kuwait and Bahrain and Jordan. On the 8th, US President Trump at one point said the US-Iran memorandum of understanding had "ended," but later said negotiations with Iran "can continue." Also, according to multiple US media outlets, the US and Iran are still conducting "technical talks" on nuclear issues, and regional intermediaries such as Pakistan and Qatar are also pushing all parties to maintain communication to prevent a further escalation of a military confrontation.

These remarks have sharply narrowed market expectations regarding the prospects for negotiations and stability in the region. The Strait of Hormuz previously carried transit of about 20% of the world's oil and natural gas. Today, the ongoing shipping tensions layered atop nuclear talks stuck in a stalemate have left the situation heading toward uncertainty.

Provisional agreement torn apart, negotiating foundation shaken

The root of the tensions between the US and Iran lies in the breakdown of the provisional ceasefire agreement signed in June. Under this agreement, Iran committed to make arrangements to restore shipping order and ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels; in exchange, the US granted Iran corresponding economic benefits.

However, hardliners in Iran offered a completely different interpretation, insisting that the agreement gives Iran control over the strait and that it continues to fire at commercial vessels that do not sail along designated routes. On the 9th, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a statement saying that over the past two weeks Iran has gradually reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and that transit capacity has been restored to about 50% of pre-war levels. It also demanded that relevant ships comply with Iran's security requirements, transit via routes designated by Iran, and apply for permission from the Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy.

A senior US official responded directly: if Iran cannot comply with this relatively simple provisional agreement—which has brought Iran material economic benefits—then it is almost impossible for the two sides to reach a more complex final agreement involving the disposition of nuclear materials and a long-term nuclear mechanism.

It is also notable that on Friday, the US Department of the Treasury announced new sanctions against Iranian businessman Ali Ansari and related entities. This move itself runs counter to the commitment in the provisional agreement that the US and Iran should maintain the "status quo" on sanctions during negotiations, showing that both sides are crossing the boundaries of the agreement.

Battle for the shipping lanes: continuing South-North game

The actual state of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz reflects a deeper struggle for dominance between the US and Iran. According to Global Times, the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), based in Bahrain, issued a bulletin on the 10th stating that the threat level to safety and security in the strait and surrounding waters remains at a severe level. It also emphasized that the southern route has been expanded and remains open to all ships, and suggested that transiting vessels coordinate with joint naval forces, while noting that this is not a mandatory requirement.

Despite the US continuing to recommend the southern route, since July 7, no large vessels with no positioning system have transited via the southern route close to the coast of Oman, and as of the 10th there have been no commercial vessels publicly indicating an intention to take the southern route. Iran, meanwhile, continues to demand that ships take the northern route close to the Iranian coast, and that they obtain permission from the Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy.

This stalemate means that although both the US and Iran claim the strait is "open," commercial shipping is effectively at a standstill, and the risk to access for global energy markets has not been resolved.

Strategic options are narrowing, and Trump faces a three-way dilemma

The pessimistic remarks by senior officials have intensified speculation about Trump's next strategic direction. At present, there are roughly three options facing Trump: to restore full-scale war to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons; to sign an agreement below its stated goals; or to completely withdraw from the conflict, which would leave control of the strait undecided.

Disagreements over the nuclear issue are also deeply rooted. The US insists that Iran must hand over its low-enriched uranium, buried underground, to the United States; otherwise, a nuclear agreement cannot be reached. Officials said the US has low-cost military options that could permanently block access to this batch of nuclear materials, but they also acknowledged that doubts have long existed about how much uranium stockpile the US military's attacks truly destroyed and how that can be verified.

Under the framework of the provisional agreement, the two sides have 60 days to reach a final nuclear deal, though the deadline can be extended. In the provisional agreement, Iran did not explicitly commit to reducing its nuclear program; it only pledged that both sides would seek a satisfactory solution regarding the disposition of Iran's existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Iran has recently sent signals to the US that attacking commercial ships was a mistake and that the two sides should continue negotiations. Whether this statement can translate into substantive action remains to be seen.

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