Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | July 11, 2026

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Market Overview

Tech stocks continued to support US stocks, the Nasdaq logged a three-session winning streak, the S&P 500 closed at a fresh one-and-more-month high, rising for two straight weeks. The Dow recorded its first weekly decline in five weeks; SK hynix’s US debut jumped more than 10%; Meta rose 6%—after releasing a paid AI model, it continued to rally for two days, closing the week up nearly 15%; Nvidia closed up 4%, leading chip bellwethers; “the first stablecoin stock” Circle rose 5%.

Trump reignited hopes for US-Iran negotiations, posting that he agreed to continue talks with Iran, after which the yield on the 10-year US Treasuries refreshed its daily high; the US dollar index briefly turned lower.

Japan’s finance minister encouraged pension funds to increase holdings of domestic assets, and Japanese stocks and bonds rose together.

Offshore yuan rose intraday above 6.78 for the first time in more than two weeks. Bitcoin rose intraday above $64k, hitting a more-than-two-week high, up nearly 3% from the day’s low.

After Trump’s post, crude oil jumped more than 1% in the short term to a daily high, then returned to a downtrend; gold refreshed its daily low, fell more than 1%, and then narrowed most of its losses. For the week, crude oil ended a four-week losing streak, with Brent up more than 4% for the week. New copper hit fresh highs for more than a week in a row, reversing three weeks of declines.

In the Asian session, China’s A-shares fell together in the afternoon; the ChiNext fell more than 4%, commercial aerospace saw a surge with multiple daily limit-ups, chips and semiconductors declined, and Hong Kong’s “AI model” “two heroes” crashed.

Headlines

> China > > State Council: Strengthen efforts to tackle frontier technologies, and accelerate the building of the next-generation communications network and computing power network. > > China ushers in the era of reusable recoverable rockets; the Long March 10乙’s maiden flight was successful, achieving the world’s first-ever sea-based net recovery. > > Report: Doubao AI agent smartphone plans to be unveiled and go on sale during the 2026 WAIC, with 80k to 100k units already stocked. > > MiniMax CEO Yan Junjie sent a company-wide letter: no longer receiving compensation; the individual will set aside 4% of shares for team incentives and 1% of shares to support open-source development. > > Overseas > > Trump said the US has agreed to continue negotiations with Iran; US media said the next round may be held next week, while Iran’s side denied it; Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs: it has never raised a request for talks with the US and agreed to let the mediator visit Iran. > > Fed semiannual monetary policy report: inflation will heat up further this spring; AI infrastructure has become a new factor pushing inflation; reiterated the commitment to stabilize prices. > > Japan’s finance minister encouraged GPIF pension funds to increase investment in domestic financial assets, with Japanese stocks and bonds rising together. > > SK hynix created the largest overseas IPO going to the US; its first US trading day closed up 13%. SK Group chairman: if the share price remains stable, consider issuing more US shares, expanding investment in the US, and rolling out a new “memory as a service” model; SK hynix CEO: in 2027, the most severe storage-chip shortage in history will arrive, with supply-demand imbalance possibly continuing until after 2030. > > Exposed internal memo from Meta: signed long-term supply agreements with SanDisk, Samsung, and Sumitomo Electric, with compute doubling in 2027. > > Apple sues OpenAI for allegedly stealing commercial secrets, demanding destruction of any sensitive materials and redesigning AI hardware; OpenAI’s response: not interested in other companies’ commercial secrets.

Market Close

US & Europe stocks: S&P 500 +0.42% to 7,575.39, up 1.23% for the week; Dow +0.29% to 52,637.01, down 0.50% for the week; Nasdaq +0.29% to 26,281.607, up 1.74% for the week. Europe STOXX 600 +0.04% to 641.10, down 1.79% for the week.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite -1.00% to 3,996.16. Shenzhen Component Index -2.29% to 15,046.67. ChiNext -4.37% to 3,842.73.

Bond market: Near the end of trading, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury was around 4.56%, up about 1 basis point on the day, and up about 8 basis points for the week. The 2-year US Treasury yield was around 4.21%, up about 3 basis points on the day, and up about 7 basis points for the week.

Commodities: WTI August crude futures closed -0.93% at $71.41 per barrel, up 3.96% for the week. Brent September crude futures closed -0.38% at $76.01 per barrel, up 5.39% for the week. COMEX July gold futures closed -0.64% at $4,104.1 per ounce, down 0.21% for the week. COMEX July silver futures closed -0.94% at $59.809 per ounce, down 1.38% for the week. COMEX July copper futures closed up 0.3% at $6.2335 per pound, up 1.95% for the week.

Headlines Details

Global Major Developments

China

State Council: Strengthen efforts to tackle frontier technologies, and accelerate the building of the next-generation communications network and computing power network. The meeting said we should systematically advance the Digital China initiative, plan digital infrastructure in a moderately forward-looking way, accelerate the building of the next-generation communications network and computing power network, enhance intelligent and digital transformation capabilities, and fully empower economic and social development. We should strengthen R&D on frontier technologies, enhance assessment and prevention/control capabilities for new types of security risks, and strictly hold the safety bottom line.

A milestone moment for China’s reusable rockets! The maiden flight of the Long March 10乙 was successful, achieving the world’s first-ever sea-based net recovery. China’s space industry makes history again! On July 10, 2026, the Long March 10乙 launch vehicle completed its first launch successfully. Using the world-first “sea-based net capture” method, it carried out the recovery of a stage-level booster. This opened a brand-new technical path independent of SpaceX. Reuse of fewer than 5 times is enough to show cost advantages; with reuse of 10 times or more, the cost per launch is expected to drop by about 80%. Facing the enormous domestic market of 28k satellites, this cost-reduction revolution is only just beginning.

• China’s space industry enters the era of rocket recovery; experts analyze the highlights of the first flight of Long Ten YI. This mission is the first time for our country to successfully implement a controllable recovery of the first stage of a launch vehicle, and it is also the first time globally that a rocket’s network-based recovery has been carried out. The Long March 10乙 launch vehicle has become the first reusable launch vehicle successfully conducting recovery in China. This marks a historic breakthrough in China’s reusable rocket technology, and will lay a solid foundation for accelerating the enhancement of China’s capability to enter and exit space. China’s space industry has thereby entered the era of rocket recovery.
• China kicks off the era of reusable rockets; what’s the secret behind the world-first “network-based recovery”? By canceling landing legs and switching to flexible net capture, not only are payload capacity and reliability improved, but it is also highly homologous with the crewed moon-landing rocket. Costs can be significantly reduced with 5 reuses, and costs per launch are expected to be compressed by four-fifths with 10+ reuses.

Unitree robots underwent surgery and made it onto Nature. The research team selected the Unitree Technology G1 humanoid robot commonly used in university labs. It held laparoscopic instruments and, via remote control, performed laparoscopic cholecystectomy on two live pigs. This is the world’s first example of a humanoid robot completing a full standard minimally invasive surgical workflow in live subjects.

• Global first: a humanoid robot enters the operating room, with doctors controlling it to perform live surgery. The global first preclinical trial for humanoid robot surgery has succeeded. A team from the University of California, San Diego used two “Surgie” robots to separately carry out human-robot collaboration and robotic-team cholecystectomy on live animals. The study aims to alleviate the shortage of surgeons and validate the feasibility of humanoid robots entering operating rooms as flexible, low-cost assistants; in the future, they may be able to serve remote and special environments.

Report: Doubao AI agent smartphone plans to be unveiled and go on sale during the 2026 WAIC, and currently has 80k to 100k units in stock. Industry insiders say the arrival of products like Doubao AI agent smartphones may reshape the competitive logic of the smartphone industry: the focus of competition has shifted from pure battles over software and hardware parameters to real user-experience of deploying on-device AI large models. For domestic smartphone makers, this may become a key inflection point for industrial upgrading, and local brands’ market share could keep rising.

MiniMax CEO Yan Junjie sent a company-wide letter: no longer receiving compensation; the individual will set aside 4% of shares for team incentives and 1% for open-source development. Facing a sharp drop in the stock price triggered by the first large-scale unlock after its IPO, MiniMax founder Yan Junjie announced that, effective immediately, he would give up his compensation until the company achieves AGI, and would set aside his personal 4% shareholding for incentive purposes to stabilize morale with a “founder-style bet.” Meanwhile, the company completed a new financing round of HK$16 billion, attracting top sovereign funds worldwide to participate. MiniMax also revealed that it is actively developing a massive 2.7 trillion-parameter model, M3 Pro, far larger in scale than the current flagship model M3 parameters.

Overseas

Trump said the US has agreed to continue negotiations with Iran; US media said the next round may be held next week, while Iran’s side denied it. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs: it has never raised a request for talks with the US; it agreed to a mediator’s visit. According to US media, Qatar’s negotiation representative went to Iran after coordinating with the US side on Friday and met with Iranian officials, creating conditions for the restoration of US-Iran talks; diplomats said both sides want to return to the framework of the memorandum of understanding; US officials said the Trump administration’s strategy is to conduct strikes and then pause military actions, preventing further escalation and leaving room for diplomatic mediation.

• The US-Iran situation is tense; during Trump’s back-and-forth schedule to the NATO summit, he temporarily switched to a different aircraft. It is reported that Israel told the US that “there is a new plan to assassinate Trump by Iran.” The assassination plot is back. Israel informed the US about Iran’s latest assassination plan targeting Trump, triggering emergency aircraft changes during the NATO summit. Trump himself admitted, “They want to take out the leadership of the United States—that is, me. I’m on every list they have. I think I’ve got a bit of luck—maybe it won’t last too long.”

Fed semiannual monetary policy report: inflation will heat up further this spring; AI infrastructure has become a new factor pushing inflation; reiterated the commitment to stabilize prices. The report warned that inflation will rise further this spring; tariff effects continue to work through the system, conflict in the Middle East pushes energy prices higher, and AI infrastructure construction drives surging demand—together increasing inflationary pressure. It also reiterated its commitment to maintain price stability and made clear that it will use all available tools to achieve its two dual mission goals.

Japan’s finance minister encouraged GPIF pension funds to increase investment in domestic financial assets, with Japanese stocks and bonds rising together. Japanese Finance Minister Kayanama? (Koyama?). Hints: It says Katayama Ky?? This is likely “Kato”? (Translation keep as given) Shigemori? — sorry cannot. Japanese Finance Minister Kiy? — no: Replace? (Cannot).

Japanese Finance Minister Koyama? (As in source: 片山皋月) vowed to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to maintain market confidence and supported GPIF increasing its investment in Japanese assets. After the remarks, the 10-year JGB yield fell by more than 10 basis points, the Nikkei 225 jumped more than 2.2%, and the yen exchange rate spiked 0.4%. Daiwa Securities said the falling yields will directly support the stock market, and if GPIF increases its domestic asset allocation, it will also provide a backstop for the yen.

• Finance minister “named” 1.8 trillion GPIF, sparking a yen pulse jump; Goldman Sachs poured cold water: it was just an “overreaction.” Goldman said this bond-market rebound was an “overreaction,” maintained a bearish stance on ultra-long Japanese government bonds, and believes the rebound is not a trend reversal.

AI frenzy continues! SK hynix creates the largest overseas IPO to the US; its first US trading day closed up 13%. SK hynix ADR opened up 14% and at one point was up nearly 19% intraday. The IPO issued nearly 180 million ADRs, raising $26.5 billion, breaking the USIPO financing record in more than a decade held by Alibaba. It is said that three cornerstone investors were allocated a total of $5 billion in ADRs.

• SK Group chairman: if the share price remains stable, consider issuing more US shares, expanding investment in the US, and rolling out a new “memory as a service” model. SK Group chairman Choi Taey?? (崔泰源) said that if the share price stays stable, SK hynix intends to issue more ADRs; SK Group’s investment scale in the US will far exceed the currently disclosed $35 billion. He also proposed a new business model that allows customers to rent memory chip usage rights.
• SK hynix CEO: 2027 will see the most severe storage-chip shortage in history; the shortage may continue after 2030. SK hynix CEO Gweon? (郭鲁正) said it is expected that 2027 will become the year with the most severe supply shortage in the storage-chip industry. It expects storage-chip demand to keep exceeding the company’s production capacity, continuing beyond 2030. It also said that more and more customers are choosing to sign long-term supply contracts because they generally believe tight supply will last for a long time.
• From “the most hopeless company in Korea” to a trillion-scale storage king—what did SK hynix do right? The key to SK hynix’s turnaround lies in decisively focusing on its storage main business during the crisis, introducing solutions from SK Group to address the difficulty of long-term capital investment, and continuing to研发 (R&D) and investing even when the HBM outlook was unclear. After the AI wave erupted, it seized the early opportunity and became the global HBM leader.

A leaked internal memo from Meta: signed long-term supply agreements with SanDisk, Samsung, and Sumitomo Electric, with compute doubling in 2027. A reported internal memo from Meta sparked waves in the market: the company plans to deploy 7 gigawatts of AI compute in 2026, double to 14 gigawatts in 2027, with annual capital expenditures reaching $145 billion, and has already signed long-term supply agreements with SanDisk, Samsung, and Sumitomo Electric.

Apple sues OpenAI for allegedly stealing commercial secrets, demanding destruction of sensitive materials and redesigning AI hardware. Apple accuses OpenAI of deliberately driving Apple employees to leak information related to unreleased products, serving OpenAI’s plan for its own hardware R&D. It demands that OpenAI destroy all materials involved and redesign the product to ensure it contains no Apple technology. Tang Tan, OpenAI’s chief hardware officer and former Apple’s vice president of product design, is one of the core defendants. OpenAI responded that it has no interest in other companies’ commercial secrets.

Selected Research Reports

When will this round of AI top out? In the past two decades, six high-availability industry cases: the stock-price peak typically leads the fundamental peak by about 1 to 1.5 years. High-availability industries often show an “M top.” Guoxin Securities believes that data from six high-availability industries historically reveal that stock market tops usually lead turning points in fundamentals by 1 to 1.5 years—“earnings are still being delivered” does not equal “the market has not topped yet.” High-availability sectors generally show an M-top pattern, and the “muting of positives” is an early warning signal. The fate of this round’s AI compute rally hinges on where the tech giants’ Capex goes: the current total expansion momentum has not ended, but the second derivative of capital expenditure for Microsoft and Meta has already turned negative; the signal of an inflection point cannot be ignored.

“Everyone is going all-in long!” Bank of America: keep an eye on Japan; this will be the “canary” warning of a global big drop. Bank of America’s report shows that bullish/bearish indicators have been continuously holding in an extremely optimistic range of 9.5. Current market consensus rests on “four no’s”: the US economy will not hard land, the Fed will not raise rates, AI spending will not be cut, and Democrats will not sweep the midterm election. And Japan’s bank stocks are the key “canary”: if Japanese bond yields rise rapidly to pressure bank stocks, it could signal that a global risk-asset adjustment is underway.

Goldman Sachs deep report: who will become the long-term winner in China’s AI large model industry? In the base text model category, Zhipu and DeepSeek are seen as the most competitive long-term players; in the multimodal category, ByteDance is leading. Goldman believes China’s AI large models have moved from “low cost” to “high intelligence.” Open-source models represented by Zhipu GLM and DeepSeek are converging on the performance of the world’s top closed-source models, and—through cost advantages, open-source ecosystems, and overseas expansion—are expected to drive rapid growth in China’s AI market.

SemiAnalysis latest interview: storage still has room to double; CPU is just a supporting actor; CPO rollout delayed to 2029. Founder Dylan Patel said Anthropic is profitable, with ARR exceeding $50 billion, and risks falsifying ROI assumptions. On the hardware side, memory has risen 4x and is expected to rise another 2–3x; structural shortages driven by inference models will persist for several years. CPU demand is mostly “catch-up,” a near-term “mini cycle” rather than a long-term inflection. CPO mass production has been pushed to end-2028, unexpectedly extending the copper-cable windfall period; meanwhile, power bottlenecks are forcing data centers to build their own “post-grid power” systems.

SemiAnalysis: Meta AI could surpass Google within half a year and form a three-way standoff with OpenAI and Anthropic. SemiAnalysis expects that Meta’s MSL could surpass Google within the next 6 months, moving into the forefront AI first tier and shifting AI competition from the prior two-horse pattern of Google and OpenAI to a three-horse pattern of Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic. If Zuckerberg maintains the current level of capital investment, Google could be permanently pushed out of the first tier of the world’s ultra-large-scale AI players.

Bullish on space data centers, Goldman greatly raised its low-Earth-orbit satellite installation forecast: it will surge to 300k satellites by 2031; in the optimistic scenario it reaches 400k. Goldman raised its 2031 forecast for global low-Earth-orbit satellite installations from 42k to 305k in one step, an increase of 634%. The key to this historic upward revision is that space data centers were included for the first time in the industry measurement framework. Goldman expects that starting in 2029, space data centers will replace satellite internet and become the biggest engine for LEO growth, contributing nearly 80% of incremental installation demand by 2031.

Domestic Companies

Deng Yongping buys Pop Mart again! Its holdings officially break 64k; he said, “I don’t care about short-term volatility; I only look at the next 20 years.” According to a disclosure by the Hong Kong Exchange, well-known investor Deng Yongping increased his holdings of Pop Mart shares again. His share count rose from 91.2728 million shares to 102 million shares, and his stake increased from 6.85% to 7.65%. He said, “I don’t care what others think, and I also don’t care about fluctuations in short-term profits. I’m just trying to think about what happens 10 to 20 years from now. My assumptions come entirely from my own experience and my understanding of this world, and I’m not promising they’re correct.”

A leading memory module manufacturer revealed: memory prices will keep rising. E.Sun? (King Yuan Electronics?) chairman Chen Libai disclosed that in 2026 Q3, DRAM contract prices will rise 20%-30%, while NAND Flash will rise 35%-40%. TrendForce expects DRAM to rise month-on-month 13%-18% in Q3 and NAND Flash 10%-15%; UBS is more optimistic, forecasting DRAM will rise 32% in Q3 and believes tight supply and demand will last until the first half of 2028.

Overseas Macros

Five task forces are here—Wosh “united front,” aiming to cut rates? A policy framework reform pushed by Fed Chair Wosh is entering a substantive stage—five task forces officially debuted on July 9, bringing together heavyweight figures including the former chief of the Bank of England and Nobel Prize-winning economist(s) as well as Marc Andreessen. Combined with the prior adjustment of BEA’s PCE statistics methodology, Goldman and UBS warned that inflation readings will be systematically lowered. CICC pre-modeled a clear three-step roadmap: personnel deployment, framework reshaping, shift toward a dovish stance, with the endpoint directly pointing to rate cuts in the fourth quarter.

S&P 500 has been “abandoned”! US retail net inflows hit a post-pandemic low: not buying the index, just betting on hot themes. In the week of July 10, retail capital net inflows into US stocks totaled only $13 billion—the lowest since the pandemic. Buying and selling are roughly balanced, showing that retail is shifting from “buy the index” to “chase themes.” An AAII survey shows the number of bears exceeds bulls, and market sentiment cools. Analysts believe retail has not fully exited; it is waiting for entry opportunities after pullbacks in sectors like tech stocks.

A daily gap of 9.4 million barrels! The IEA warns that further US-Iran clashes could overturn next year’s oil surplus outlook. The IEA report said that in June global oil supply rose by 4.1 million barrels per day due to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but compared with pre-war levels, the gap is still as high as 9.4 million barrels per day. A durable ceasefire agreement is a “necessary condition” for normalizing the oil market. While spot crude oil supply is currently sufficient on the surface, refined products remain persistently tight; this “split” is pushing cracking margins and refinery profit margins to a four-year high at the beginning of this month. It expects global oil demand to fall by 1 million barrels per day this year—this would be the first annual decline in six years since the pandemic.

Overseas Companies

OpenAI’s “number two” quits—losing another major person again on the eve of listing. During the listing sprint, OpenAI “number two” Fidji Simo announced her departure due to the worsening of a neuro-immune disease, and her responsibilities were split into three parts. Meanwhile, growth of ChatGPT users has stalled and the enterprise market has been overtaken by Anthropic, and both companies have fallen into a price war. Management upheaval combined with commercialization pressure casts a shadow over the IPO outlook for the world’s hottest AI company.

Musk exposes SpaceX’s latest blueprint: launches the first batch of AI satellites next year, lands on Mars within five years, and sends 10,000 people to the Moon within ten years. Musk said the plan is to launch the first batch of AI satellites next year and achieve large-scale deployment within two years to break through Earth’s energy and land bottlenecks. He also said that within the fastest two to three years, the first astronauts will be sent to the Moon, and a lunar city will be built over the next 10 years.

Today’s News Preview

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