On unlock day, one stock rises while the other falls—two leading AI model players have different playbooks

In sharp contrast to Zhipu’s two consecutive days of gains, MiniMax’s lock-up release day saw a choppy pullback. On July 9, domestic large-model company MiniMax saw the first batch of restricted shares released after its IPO. The stock opened lower at HK$359.8, briefly surged to HK$397.4, but then kept sliding. It closed at HK$297.4, with a total market capitalization of HK$69.155B. Compared with its March all-time high of HK$1,330, it was down by roughly 77%.

This was MiniMax’s largest-scale release of shares since listing. Although more than 80% of Pre-IPO and cornerstone investors stated they would hold long term, the share price still swung violently. The share-price volatility is only the surface; MiniMax and Zhipu’s market-cap curves depict different trajectories for the commercialization of China’s large AI models. Whether products can turn into real money will determine the valuation level in the next phase.

Stock Price Roller Coaster

On January 9, MiniMax listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange with an offering price of HK$165. On its first trading day, it closed up 109%. Its market capitalization immediately surpassed HK$1 billion, and the market’s enthusiasm for this domestic large-model company was nearly boiling over.

Six months later, on July 9—the lock-up release day—the other side of the capital feast that began at the start of the year emerged. In the morning, MiniMax opened lower at HK$359.8, and then buy orders rushed in quickly. The stock was pulled up to HK$397.4 at one point, as if it were going to replicate Zhipu’s previous-day script of opening lower and rising. But after 10:00 a.m., the market’s tone changed abruptly. The stock turned downward, and losses kept widening in the afternoon, with a low of HK$283.8. Although the selloff narrowed slightly into the close, it ultimately finished at HK$297.4, down 17.98% for the day. Its Hong Kong market capitalization shrank to HK$69.155B. As of the time this report by Beijing Business Daily was released, related personnel at MiniMax had not yet commented on the stock’s performance after the lock-up release.

The plunge is not without any signs. Two months after listing, amid a frenzy of AI-sector themes, MiniMax’s share price was pushed to a historical peak of HK$1,330. After the high point, there followed a long period of decline; by early June, the share price had fallen to more than half from the peak.

In early June, MiniMax released its next-generation large model, MiniMax-M3. A week later, it announced that its API would be permanently offered at half price. After the pricing-cut news came out, JPMorgan downgraded MiniMax to “Neutral,” citing that the market did not recognize the product’s originally expected premium. With that news layered on, the stock fell another step.

Zhipu and MiniMax, which both listed on Hong Kong stocks back to back on January 8, had an offering price of HK$116.2 for Zhipu. After listing, its share price climbed steadily, reaching an all-time high of HK$2,980 in June following the release of its latest model GLM-5.2. When it closed on July 9, Zhipu’s share price was HK$2,032, and its total market capitalization was HK$449.711B.

The Divergence Lines of Peer Companies

MiniMax’s lock-up release day happened to land right on Zhipu’s footsteps.

On July 8, Zhipu’s first day of lock-up release jumped 13.35%, and the next day it continued this trend. One day later, it was MiniMax’s turn. It also opened lower in the same way, but it failed to play out the same script.

Wang Chao, founder of Wenyuan Think Tank, told Beijing Business Daily, “In terms of overall liquidity, the pressures on the two are completely different. Zhipu’s release proportion is far lower than MiniMax’s, so the pressure on the share price is definitely much larger.” Public information shows that in this release, about 44.85% of MiniMax’s shares were scheduled for release, while Zhipu’s released-share proportion is about 5.76%.

In Wang Chao’s view, differences in shareholders’ “genes” also determine the market’s attitude toward “lock-up commitments.” Zhipu’s main targets in this round of releases are cornerstone investors, many of which have state-owned background institutions. Wang Chao told Beijing Business Daily, “These investors ‘invest small, invest early, and have patience,’ and naturally play the role of a stabilizing ballast. MiniMax’s shareholder structure looks more like a typical internet company. In its lists of Pre-IPO and cornerstone investors, the proportion of purely financial PE/VC is higher.”

Wang Chao pointed out that these institutions’ entry costs are extremely low, and their accounting returns have already multiplied by dozens of times—sometimes even over a hundred times. When facing the lock-up window, they are “very willing to exit.” The logic behind it is realistic: such institutions typically have a return horizon of around seven years, and after that there are even better projects; cash flow is crucial to them.

When communicating with Beijing Business Daily, Pan Helin, a member of the expert committee of the Institute of Information and Communication Economics under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said, “Some of MiniMax’s early shareholders have started to rush to sell. There is basically no difference in the selling positions of ordinary investors and cornerstone investors/original shareholders—what differs is cost. Ordinary investors have a higher buying cost and hesitate when selling. But cornerstone and Pre-IPO shareholders have more room for profit, so selling carries no psychological burden.”

However, Wang Chao believes this does not necessarily mean the two companies are entering a divergence stage. “Only after all of the two companies’ shares have been fully unlocked is when the true comparison can be made.”

Large Models Move Out of “Belief Trading”

More practitioners believe the large-model sector is undergoing a valuation switch. Previously, the capital market was willing to pay high premiums for labels like “AI-native.” Now, the same pool of funds is starting to focus on contract amounts, gross margin, and customer renewal rates.

In 2025, MiniMax achieved total revenue of 7903.8 million USD, up 158.9% year over year. More than 70% of its revenue came from international markets. Gross profit was 2007.9 million USD, up 437.2% from the same period last year. Gross margin increased to 25.4%, and performance exceeded market expectations. Specifically, revenue from C-end AI-native products was 5307.5 million USD, up 143.4% year over year, accounting for 67.2% of total revenue; revenue from B-end open platforms and other enterprise services was 2596.3 million USD, up 197.8% year over year, accounting for 32.8%.

In 2025, Zhipu generated revenue of 7.24 billion yuan, up 131.9% from 2024. Its adjusted net loss was 3.182 billion yuan, expanding by 29.1% from 2024. Depending on different deployment methods, Zhipu cloud-deployed revenue in 2025 was 1.904 billion yuan, accounting for 26.3% of total revenue; locally deployed revenue was 5.34 billion yuan, accounting for 73.7%.

In analysts’ view, the share-price volatility on the unlock day is only a short-term supply-and-demand game. What truly determines long-term market value is the product’s fundamentals. Wang Chao believes the more important reason determining the stock’s trend after the unlock is at the technology level: “Whether large models can truly deliver is more important, and it is also a long-term investment logic. The key is two indicators: model call volume and whether there is market pricing power and the ability to raise prices.”

From the perspective of model call volume, on OpenRouter — the world’s largest API aggregation platform — this week Mini-Max M3 and Zhipu’s GML5.2 ranked second and third respectively. For this month, their global rankings are second and ninth respectively.

On the eve of the lock-up release, ratings from international investment banks were also thought-provoking. In the first week of July, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup all gave MiniMax “Buy” ratings, with target prices of HK$860, HK$500, and HK$533 respectively. In late June, MiniMax’s two largest investors and strategic shareholders, Alibaba and Mihayou, clearly stated that they are bullish on Mini-Max’s development prospects long term and will continue to accompany the company’s growth. In addition, MiniMax’s founding team set a voluntary lock-up period of 12 months, far longer than the industry’s common 6-month arrangement. The first unlock does not involve the founding team or employee shareholding.

Beijing Business Daily reporter Wei Wei