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The US and Iran may enter a “tactical pause,” but the ambiguity in the memorandum must be resolved.

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Golden Finance News reports that CNN analyst Abbas Al Lawati said that the core of the renewed conflict between Iran and the U.S. lies in the different interpretations each side has of Article 5 of the memorandum of understanding. The clause states that Iran will “make arrangements… to ensure the safe passage of merchant vessels,” and, in cooperation with Oman, “determine the future management of the strait.” However, the clause does not explicitly grant Iran exclusive jurisdiction over shipping in that area. The host of the Iran Podcast, Negar Mortazavi, noted that, “Tehran’s message is very clear: the strait is open, but never open on the conditions of the United States,” and that, “Trump signed the agreement on paper, and now he is trying to freely misinterpret it at sea. Iran’s response is to bring the dispute back to the text of the memorandum itself, indicating that military force cannot rewrite the established outcome of negotiations.” Crisis Group said that the ambiguities in the memorandum may initially have helped end the fighting, but as both sides began interpreting the text from their own interests, those ambiguities quickly became liabilities. The think tank said that to prevent the ceasefire process from fully breaking down, both sides must stop trying to impose their own interpretation of Article 5 on the other side, even if only to ease tensions while negotiations continue. This means Iran needs to stop firing at ships, and the U.S. also needs to stop pushing alternative route options, at least in the current phase. The mediators said they are working to bring both sides back to the negotiating table. Although there are currently no signs of a compromise, the fighting seems to have been temporarily calmed—at least today. (Jin10)
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