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Analysis: Weak U.S. Employment Data Eases Rate Hike Concerns, Bitcoin Rebounds Driven by Spot ETF Inflows

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On July 3, U.S. employment data came in weaker than expected, alleviating market concerns about further tightening by the Federal Reserve and boosting demand for risk assets. Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, noted that the data undermined claims of a re-acceleration in the U.S. labor market. The interest rate market is still pricing in a rate hike this year, but the implied probability has dropped from around 85% before the data release to 77%, with the probability of a hike this month falling from about 30% to roughly 18%. In terms of capital flows, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $224 million on Thursday, ending a streak of 10 consecutive days of outflows, indicating that buyers are returning after approximately $2.4 billion in redemptions. Analysts at QCP Capital stated that pressure in the options market has also eased alongside the spot rebound, with one-week at-the-money implied volatility dropping from the mid-40% range to the high-30% range, and the term structure shifting back to a normal contango after being inverted during the sell-off. However, QCP believes that the employment data does not send a completely dovish signal. Despite the lower-than-expected job additions, the acceleration in wage growth, declining unemployment rate, and strong consumer spending may indicate a contraction in labor supply rather than a cooling in demand, leaving room for the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance. QCP noted that the market has pushed back rate hike expectations from September to December, but cross-asset performance does not yet support a genuine policy shift, with attention still needed on the CPI on July 14, PPI on July 15, and the FOMC at the end of the month.
BTC0.64%
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