Core PCE is still slightly higher than CPI, so the downward path is indeed bumpy—don’t expect too much from the market.

Bijie Network news: BofA Securities analysts expect the U.S. overall CPI in June to fall 0.09% month-over-month, mainly driven by a drop in gasoline prices. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.28% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year. Demand related to the World Cup has boosted services-sector inflation, and core PCE is expected to be slightly higher than CPI. The forecast reveals differentiated features of the inflation structure: the retreat in energy prices suppresses overall prices, but the stickiness of services-sector inflation still provides key support. The resilience of core inflation suggests there is resistance in the process of prices falling, and the Federal Reserve maintains a prudent stance as it makes policy-shift decisions. This outlook reinforces the market’s view that the path of inflation falling is likely to be uneven, limiting the excessive build-up of near-term rate-cut expectations.