AMD has strong near-term momentum and hasn’t effectively broken below the daily EMA20. Meanwhile, many semiconductor stocks have already fallen to around the EMA50. On July 23, AMD has the “Advancing AI 2026” global flagship AI conference—so I actually think this is a short-term trading opportunity with relatively high certainty.

Why do I say that?
In this move, AMD has already priced in a lot of expectations ahead of time. The technicals have kept rising along the EMA20, which suggests strong fund follow-through, and the market is also waiting for the July 23 catalyst.
However, many tech companies share a common pattern: they rise before the event, then you see how the market fulfills the expectations on the event day.
If, on the day of the event, there isn’t a clear set of new products, new customers, or new AI partnerships that exceed market expectations, it’s quite common for short-term funds to lock in profits—this is the so-called “Sell the News.” For example, Apple and Microsoft in June—after each conference, it tends to be sell the news.
Right now, I’m focusing on the $600–$630 area above. On one hand, this is a fairly important resistance zone. On the other hand, after this rally, there are also increasingly more shares with unrealized gains up there. The daily RSI will likely form a triple-top bearish divergence.
Of course, this is just my trading thesis and it doesn’t mean July 23 will definitely fall. If Lisa Su announces some additional upside surprises—for example, new AI GPU customers, large orders, or major progress on MI400 or Helios—then the stock continuing to break higher is also completely possible.
What I’m looking at is how many expectations the market has already traded in advance. In many cases, what determines the stock’s near-term direction is whether the news exceeds market expectations.