BTC drops 0.42% in 15 minutes: the easing of the Iran-Iraq conflict and a weaker US dollar drive a short-term rebound, but the 1-hour RSI is overbought, warning of a potential pullback

From 14:00 to 15:00 (UTC) on July 10, 2026, BTC fell by 0.42% within 15 minutes; its price range was 64,196.2–64,514.1 USDT, with a 0.49% amplitude. Despite the short-term pullback, over the past 24 hours BTC still held a 2.07% gain. The price rebounded from the $62,559 low to around $64,486.5. Market sentiment has been repaired amid easing geopolitical tensions, and attention to risk assets has risen.

The main driver behind this move is a phase of easing in the US-Iran military conflict. Fighting has entered an intermittent period; regional mediators are actively pushing for the US and Iran to restart dialogue. Marginal cooling of regional tensions helped ease market panic. Combined with macro conditions—gold rebounding to $4,120.80 (+1.13%) and the U.S. dollar index falling to around 100.80—risk-asset sentiment improved, and some funds rotated from safe-haven assets back into the crypto market.

In addition, microstructure data from the order book shows very strong buy support. The buy/sell depth ratio is 7.18 (well above the 1.5 threshold). Around $64,135 there is a large buy wall of 0.3138 BTC, accounting for 73.8% of the total volume in the top 5 tiers, suggesting institutional funds are actively defending the price or accumulating at the current levels. RSI on the 1-hour timeframe has entered the overbought region, and ADX=42.7 confirms strong trend strength; however, there is short-term pullback pressure. At the same time, investors should watch how the Fed’s June meeting minutes skewing hawkish (the probability of a rate hike in September rising to 64%) may suppress BTC’s medium-term upside.

Current key support levels to watch are $64,135 (the buy wall area) to $62,559. Resistance is seen at $64,695 and the $65,000 whole-number level. Continue monitoring whether the U.S. dollar index can keep weakening, the pullback depth after the 1-hour RSI overbought condition, and whether the buy wall on the order book remains intact. Short-term volatility may increase; users should be wary of the risk that the rebound may not be sustained.