BTC 15-minute pullback of 0.42%: Escalation in the Iran-Iraq conflict triggers inflows of safe-haven funds

From 14:00 to 14:15 UTC on July 10, 2026, BTC saw a sharp intraday drop, with a return of -0.42%. The price ranged from 64,196.2 to 64,514.1 USDT, with a volatility of 0.49%. Despite a pullback on the 15-minute timeframe, BTC still remains up 2.34% over the past 24 hours. It rebounded from the $62,521 low to around $64,607, with a marked rise in market attention and a strong risk-off sentiment.

The main driver behind this spike was a sudden escalation in the US-Iran military conflict. This week, the US military launched a dense strike targeting more than 170 targets in Iran, with a scale 17 times larger than the previous attack—its most intense offensive since the June ceasefire. Iran then retaliated with missiles and drones against targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Jordan. The dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz intensified, and concerns about a disruption to global energy supply quickly surged, driving a large flow of funds into safe-haven assets such as gold and Bitcoin.

Second, the US Dollar Index weakened to around 100.80, providing additional support for BTC. Gold rose in tandem by 1.13% to $4,120 per ounce, forming a synchronized risk-off pattern with BTC and validating the consistency of macro fund flows. Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting showed that officials lean toward raising rates while inflation remains persistently high. The situation in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and heightened inflation expectations, and increasing uncertainty over monetary policy further benefited safe-haven assets.

On the technical front, the 1-hour RSI entered an overbought region. In addition, there is a sell wall at $64,312 with 0.2515 BTC outstanding (accounting for 66.6% of the total sell orders in the top five order books), meaning there is a short-term need for pullback and consolidation. The 15-minute and daily MAs remain bullish, and the medium-term trend is biased upward, but the 4-hour ADX is only 16, so the medium-term direction has not been clearly defined. Investors should watch developments in US-Iran negotiations, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US Dollar Index trend, and be alert to the risk of a pullback after safe-haven premiums fade.