I won’t immediately change my overall mindset just because the market has risen by a few thousand points on the chart. The real thing that would make me fully flip to bullish requires a clear reversal signal across three key dimensions at the same time—capital flows, broad market sentiment, and on-chain data from across the entire network. All three are indispensable.

Before these three categories of core indicators collectively turn stronger, I will maintain an overall bearish outlook. Even later on, I’m not ruling out the possibility of the market once again dipping toward the 50k level.

A lot of viewers also read my analysis and feel my view is too negative and pessimistic.
But for me, I’d rather have the market strengthen afterward and let my judgment be proven wrong and slapped back by the market than to impulsively change my approach based on just a single big bullish candle. If I blindly enter and then get deeply trapped, that’s something I don’t want.

One of the characteristics of a bear market is that it repeatedly manufactures hope. It will occasionally pull out a rebound to restore confidence for holders, and then slowly wear down that expectation bit by bit—continuously draining everyone’s principal and patience.

At this stage in particular, I’d rather calm down and quietly observe, patiently waiting for the market to truly play out and form a clearly defined bottom, instead of seeing a little upward wave and hastily concluding that the cold winter is over and a bull market has arrived. #美伊战争阴云再起 $BTC