Does the Airdrop value brought by YT with 100U exceed 165U?

Let’s estimate what @saturn_credit’s YT-USDat current earnings look like for everyone.
Based on the current Aspecta platform Saturn pre-market price:
- Saturn FDV estimated at $200 million
- Season 1 final airdrop estimated at 5% of total supply
- S1 final total points estimated at 508.5 billion
About $19.66 U expected airdrop value corresponds to every 1 million S1 points.
And currently, with 100U buying BNB Chain YT-USDat, you can roughly get 8,213 YT (36x points boost), corresponding to about 8.43 million S1 points (S1 ends on August 8).
By this calculation, the expected airdrop value from YT expected points for 100U is about 165U.
YT-USDat ends on August 27; assuming you sell on August 8 when S1 ends, the YT value drops by about two-thirds, for a loss of about 67U; net gain is about 98U—on balance, it’s very tasty.
In other words:
Cost: 100U
Expected points value: 165U
Deduct YT decay: 67U
Expected net profit: 98U
Expected ROI: 198%
The calculation assumes that S1 points maintain the current growth rate without a large increase; secondly, at the time of the airdrop, Saturn’s FDV reaches $200 million, and the airdrop stays at 5%—the risk is still not small.
In essence, buying YT is using the principal to bet on Saturn’s airdrop covering the principal while also gaining more extra returns.
If you bet right, the returns are indeed quite good, but if you bet wrong, there’s also risk of losses; relatively, it’s more suitable to play with small amounts like a lottery.
The above calculations have volatility and are for reference only.
Note: This article is for sharing only and not any investment advice. It is intended as information sharing for non-U.S. audiences. Please do your own research (DYOR).